By 2028, Fortune Business Insights projects that the global bakery products market will reach USD 590 billion. The CAGR (Compounded annual growth rate) for 2021-28 is estimated at 5.12%. Products in this segment include bread, buns, cookies, tortillas, salted snacks, English muffins, bagels, confectionery food, hot dogs, cakes, popcorn, and so on.
Due to disruptions in the global supply chain caused by lockdowns and border closures, the pandemic has had a negative impact on the demand for bakery products and snacks worldwide. However, the market is not only changing, but consumer demand is increasing. Post-pandemic, health, food, and safety have gained renewed attention.
People across the world are making healthier choices with a focus on wellness.
A growing number of people are interested in plant-based foods and beverages, reducing sugar consumption, and understanding the link between lifestyle and health, including obesity and diabetes. As a result of these trends, food producers are reshaping their product strategies to meet new consumer demands.
In this article, we take a look at the ways companies can leverage data to inform their e-commerce strategy.
What’s driving up the demand for bakery products?
More people are choosing easy-to-use bakery products and snacks over other foods due to urbanization, convenience, western diets, and women’s participation in the workforce. Additionally, innovations in baking systems, food technologies, ingredients, formulations, and product ideas are providing customers with a greater level of choice, flexibility, and freedom.
How is e-commerce changing the game for bakery product companies?
To optimize their supply chains, bakery food and snack companies must better understand e-commerce metrics given the wide variety of products available and eventually convert sales. There are several measures that companies need to pay attention to.
Stock availability metrics, discounts across locations, and share of search results – are all critical metrics companies need to track. In addition to providing manufacturers and retailers with an insight into the trends, DataWeave’s tools also allow them to make better business decisions and ultimately improve their bottom line.
Grocery Retailers and Bakery Brands tracked
Methodology
Data Scrape period: February 2022 to September 2022
Category tracked: Bread and Bakery, Chips, Crackers, Deserts, Snacks.
Share of Search Analysis
Which brands feature the most on e-commerce portals?
When listing items on e-commerce platforms, share of search is crucial. The highest share of the top ten or top twenty items available on these platforms is correlated with how many times the item may be viewed. As a result, it would have a greater chance of being selected by the customer.
By Retailer for Category “Desserts”
Share of Search for Brands in each retailer
In Walmart Grocery, Vachon has the highest share of search at 41%, whereas Betty Crocker, Presidents Choice and No Name had the lowest share of search at 0%, in the Desserts Category.
In Loblaws, Presidents Choice had the highest share of search of 34%, whereas Dempsters had the lowest share of search of 2% in the Desserts Category.
The brand Presidents Choice consistently ranks high in the share of search results for Desserts across multiple retailers, including Atlantic Superstore, Fortinos, Instacart, Loblaws, and Zehrs – except at two retailers, Voila and Watlmart Grocery, where its share is zero.
Trend of Share of Search for “Desserts”
Share of Search analysis by Brands over Time in category “Desserts”
Share of search had dropped by around 4% for No Name, whereas for Vachon, it increased by 3% from Jan’-22 to Sep’ 22
By brands, Presidents Choice had the highest share of search at 42%, whereas Betty Crocker had the lowest share of search at 12% between Jan’ 22 and Sep’ 22 in the Desserts Category.
Availability Analysis
Which products are widely available across e-commerce portals?
The availability of the product on the e-commerce portal is one of the key indicators of meeting customer demand. Brands can use insights from DataWeave to strategize how to restock their inventory and ease customer demand. Based on data analysis, brands can also determine which products to prioritize on which platforms.
By Category
Availability analysis by Category over Time
Availability of all five categories was around 52% in Feb’ 22, which steadily increased to 61% until Aug’ 22 and has reduced to reach 55% availability in Sep’ 22
Sliced Bread category has seen the most drop in availability by 12% between Jun’ 22 and Sep’ 22
The tortilla category has the most rise in availability. It has increased by 16% between Feb-22 and May-22. It also showed an overall rise in availability of 5% from Feb-22 to Sep-22
By Location
Availability analysis by Location and Category
Across categories, Snacks & Candy had better availability at 73% than Bread & Bakery, with 56% availability.
By Location, New Brunswick had more than 65% availability across all three categories; the closest Location is Nova Scotia, with 63% availability.
Alberta had the highest availability of 100% in the Snacks & Candy category and the lowest availability of 21% overall in all three categories (weighted aggregate)
Discounts Analysis
Several discount-based insights can be studied on e-commerce platforms. From location-based trends, retailer-based trends, and manufacturer-based insights. These insights can help companies make the most of the revenue opportunity while creating an attractive value proposition for the retail consumer.
By Category
Discount analysis by Category
Discounts of all three categories were around 24% in Feb’ 22, which steadily reduced to reach 15% in Sep’ 22
Snacks, cookies & chips category has contributed the most to the drop in discounting, which dropped by 17% between Apr’ 22 and Sep’ 22
The Tortilla Category does not have any discount in the month of Jul’ 22
By Retailer
Discount on Bread & Bakery category in Walmart Grocery was around 9% in Feb’ 22. It steadily increased to 13% by Jun’ 22 and thereon reduced to reach 11% availability in Sep’ 22.
By Location
Across Retailers, Nova Scotia had the highest availability of discounts at 22%, whereas New Brunswick had the lowest with discounts at 9% in Bread & Bakery category.
Discount analysis by Retailers and Locations – Alberta, Ontario, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia Note: Analysis does not cover all locations
Bakery and snack product manufacturers on e-commerce platforms have access to a rich trove of insights they can leverage to benchmark their strategies. They can better understand customer demands, align their supply chain and critically understand the trends impacting their bottom line. Engaging with a third-party platform like DataWeave’s Digital Shelf Analytics can help brands unlock tremendous value.
Analyzing Search, Promotions and Availability for Chocolates, Biscuits, and Malt Drinks across BigBasket, Blinkit, Dmart, Swiggy etc.
Imagine you log into an e-commerce portal with a list of food items you need for the month. You know what you want, and scroll through the platform to see if there are any discounts. You check competitor products to see if you can get better deals. And within no time, fill your cart with products that you need and proceed to check out.
It all happens quickly. It’s an online shopping experience that we are familiar with. But what exactly is happening in the background?
Brands are tracking and ensuring the highest keyword ranking, optimal availability and competitive discounts to grab your order. And to enable this, Brands rely on Digital Shelf Analytics.
Here, we take a closer look at some of the key factors that Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Brands on e-commerce platforms need to pay attention to – to ensure their products appear on the top of search items, to better understand competitor discounts and to monitor the availability of their products across regions.
FMCG has experienced rapid growth in the last two years, largely attributed to digitalization, changing consumer habits, and increased spending post-pandemic. Macro factors, including government impetus, inflationary pressures, and consumption recovery, indicate a double digital growth for FMCG brands in the country. According to NielsenIQ’s FMCG Snapshot for Q2 2022, the FMCG industry has grown by 10.9% in the quarter ending June 2022, compared to 6% in the previous quarter. In the second half of 2022, consumers are expected to spend even more during the festive season. With these shifts underway, the growth opportunities in this sector can only be exploited by companies that can sense trends early – and take appropriate action.
In addition to providing manufacturers and retailers with actionable insights into e-commerce trends, DataWeave’s tools also allow them to make informed business decisions and ultimately improve their bottom line. Data-driven insights on e-commerce products can help brands optimize their supply chain to maximize sales. A company can determine the key areas that need attention based on an analysis of the availability of products on specific e-commerce channels, associated discounts, as well as zip-code level demand and supply statistics.
Here are a few sample insights and trend analyses for some popular FMCG brands in the Biscuits, Chocolate and Malt drinks categories spotted by DataWeave.
Analytics Methodology: An overview of the data set analyzed
What is the availability of Biscuits, Chocolate and Malt Drinks on e-commerce portals?
The availability of a product on an e-commerce marketplace is a key indicator of whether the product meets consumer demands. DataWeave’s availability analytics can be leveraged by FMCG brands to strategize their inventory and stock planning. Brands can also make data-driven decisions on product visibility, i.e. identify which products to prioritize on which platforms.
Biscuits had a better availability at 63% when compared to chocolates at 56% across all retailers
Dmart and Swiggy had more than 85% availability across all three categories, with Bigbasket coming next at 67% availability
Flipkart Grocery and Blinkit had the lowest availability at 46% and 50%, respectively.
Figure 1: Availability Scores for Biscuits, Chocolates and Malt Drinks across Retailers
Which manufacturers have the highest availability of products on e-commerce platforms?
A study of the availability of products across different manufacturers can reveal brands that have successfully tapped the market opportunity. Here’s a look at brands that have steadily improved their availability on e-commerce platforms.
Figure 2: Availability Trends for Biscuits across Manufacturers
In the biscuits category, all five manufacturers marked approximately 50% availability in Jan 2022. Availability steadily grew to 68% in June 2022, then declined to 63% in Aug 2022.
Unibic experienced the largest drop in availability, dropping 15% between May 22 and Aug 22.
Mondelez saw the largest rise in availability, an increase of 23% between Mar-22 and Aug-22.
Figure 3: Availability Trends for Malt Drinks across Manufacturers
Except for Boost and Nestle, availability for all seven manufacturers of malt drinks was consistently above 50%. The average availability across all manufacturers rose gradually from 55% in Jan to 63% in Jul-22, followed by a small decline to 57% in August.
From 30% availability in January 22 to a mere 7% in August 22, Boost has seen the greatest drop in availability.
The availability of Amul has risen the most over the past year, rising from 51% in January 22 to 78% in August 22, hitting 80% in July 22.
Chocolate: Which manufacturers have the highest availability of products on the e-commerce platforms?
Figure 4: Availability Trends for Chocolates across Manufacturers
Chocolate availability across all manufacturers averaged 47% in Jan-22, reaching a peak of 64% in May-22 and dropping to 51% in Aug-22.
From 46% in Jan-22 to 74% in May, Mondelez saw the biggest increase in availability, followed by a decline to 68% in August.
Ferrero experienced one of the sharpest drops in availability. Although the brand’s availability steadily grew from 77% in Jan 22 to 94% in Jul 22., it registered a steep drop to 49% in August.
The drop in availability hurts the Brand’s eCommerce in two ways. Not only does the Brand lose sales directly. But poor availability also impacts the keyword search ranking, which further hurts the sales.
Check out DataWeave’s Digital Shelf Analytics Product for insights on how Availability tracking can help reduce stock-outs and boost sales. Click here to know more.
Discount Analysis
Location-based, retailer-based, and manufacturer-based discount trends can be analyzed. These studies can help companies plan attractive and appropriate promotional and discount strategies to enhance their revenue opportunities.
Which manufacturer has been offering the most discounts?
A study of discounts offered across manufacturers for chocolates, malt drinks and biscuits indicates that some brands have increased their discounts while others have reduced their discount rates. These decisions could be triggered by demand, availability, and production cycle. Parle, for example, has steadily reduced its discount rates.
Figure 5: Discount Rate Trends across Manufacturers
Average discount rates across manufacturers were around 9% in Jan 2022 and rose steadily to reach 14% in Jul 2022. A small decline is observed post-July, with a 12% discount rate registered in Aug 2022.
In the biscuit category, Unibic offered the biggest discount of 28%, followed by ITC at 20%.
In the Chocolate category, Hershey’s offered the largest discount of 14%, followed by ITC at 12%.
In the Malt Drink Category, Amul offered the largest discount of 16%, followed by Boost at about 10%.
Check out DataWeave’s Digital Shelf Analytics Product for insights to respond to Competitor’s pricing and promotions. Click here to know more.
Share of Search Analysis
Which brands feature within the top 5 on the first page of the search?
A product that appears within the top 5 items on the first page of a search, has a higher probability of being purchased. Below is a study of the share of the search for biscuits across manufacturers and retailers.
Figure 6: Share of Search for Biscuits across Manufacturers and Retailers
Britannia dominates the top ten share of search across different online retail platforms.
Mondelez has the highest share of search at 62% in Amazon Fresh, whereas Parle-G has the lowest share of search at 7%.
In Bigbasket, Britannia has the highest search share of 62%, whereas Parle-G has the lowest search share of 7%.
Check out DataWeave’s Digital Shelf Analytics to track the Share of Keyword and Navigation Search. Click here to know more.
Conclusion
FMCG is a rapidly evolving industry sector with a high potential for growth in the coming years. FMCG brands must compete with one another to fully tap this market opportunity on several factors to ensure that their products are visible, available, and attractive to consumers. Digital crawling and big data technologies have enabled manufacturers and retailers to collect publicly available e-commerce data for useful, actionable insights and trend analysis. To stay competitive, it is crucial for manufacturers and retailers to engage with analytics and data experts to seamlessly integrate e-commerce analytics into their short- and long-term business strategies. Whether it’s building keywords to increase the share of search, knowing the right discounts to attract customers in a particular city or increasing the availability of products on specific e-commerce platforms, companies need to invest in the right data intelligence!
DataWeave for FMCG Brands
DataWeave has been working with global CPG/FMCG brands, helping them drive their growth on eCommerce platforms by enabling them to monitor their key metrics, diagnose improvement areas, recommend action, and measure interventions’ impact. DataWeave’s KPIs enable Brands to fill in the blind spots in their funnel data and allows them to respond to competitors on a near-real-time basis.
If you want to know to learn how your brand can leverage DataWeave’s data insights and improve sales, then click here to sign up for a demo
Stock availability is the degree to which a brand or retailer has inventory of all their listed items to meet customer demand. Product availability becomes even more critical when they have to respond to unforeseen changes in demand and supply. To maintain the ideal stock availability levels for all items, they need robust inventory management tools to ensure real-time updates on current stock and accurate insights into upcoming demand.
However, managing stock availability is not a clear-cut science. Retailers must balance the change in demand and keep stock availability in check.
Why Stock Availability Matters
One of the challenges of running a retail business is to optimize inventory and associated costs. Maintaining stock availability in stores is critical for offline retail businesses. And when selling online, making sure products are available across different retailers and marketplaces can have a huge impact on sales and conversions.
Understocking: It’s when a brand’s product fails to meet consumer demand. If this happens often enough, customers may not return to the brand’s website or app because of the initial experience. Understocking is not a brand’s fault entirely since they might not always be able to anticipate a change in demand. However, it’s about a their ability to adapt to a quick change in the market trends through historical analysis and accurate forecasting.
Overstocking: It’s when a company orders too much inventory. Holding too much stock will lead to higher storage costs, shrinkage, and obsolescence losses. Another loss occurs if the brand can’t quickly sell the items — diminishing the value of the products.
When multiple items are moving through a supply chain, companies can easily run into inventory inaccuracies. Discrepancies between the values of your system and the actual inventory of products can lead to understocking or overstocking. The best way to avoid discrepancies in inventory is to invest in an inventory management tool that gives you real-time updates on your stock. This is applicable for offline retail businesses.
2. Managing eCommerce inventory
Availability at Individual Product Level
Availability at Individual Product level by regions
Effective eCommerce inventory management is as important as making sure products are available in stores. Keeping track of your inventory levels and ensuring that you’re always well-stocked can avoid lost sales and keep your company running smoothly. Brands must ensure their stock is available across all the online platforms they sell. Access to real-time inventory data can help to keep a close eye on stock status across all marketplaces & retailers the product is available. Retailers also need to keep track of market trends to ensure they have the right inventory assortment to match customers’ demands.
3. Understand Consumer Demand
The only way to accurately predict future demand is to rely on historical data about your customer purchase trends. What do your customers purchase during holiday seasons? What are the upcoming trends in your category? Having data-backed answers to such questions will help brands and retailers properly stock up their inventory.
4. Adequate forecasting
Anticipating demand will help determine which products should be stocked during which seasons. Tracking past sales and metrics such as economic conditions, seasonality, peak buying months, and promotions will help brands predict demand. Analyzing such statistics will also help you get insights into the target market.
Availability across regions
5. Improve supplier relationships
It’s important to rely on a supply chain that delivers your shipment promptly. In fact, you should foster close relationships with your suppliers to trim costs and improve stock availability. You should be able to share key details such as future demands, so suppliers can ensure timely delivery.
Availability Analysis across Retailers and Categories
Consequences of Inefficient Inventory Management
What are the effects of overstocking?
Tied-up cash: Money spent on overstocking is tied-up money that your company could have put to better use. You can use it to pay off debts, wages, and rent. Inventory often has a limited shelf life due to material degradation, changing consumer trends, spoilage, and obsolescence.
Poor customer experience: Poor product availability will lead to low customer satisfaction & dropping customer loyalty.
Missed sales: Customers could gravitate towards the competition to make their current purchase if a product is unavailable at your online store. The more freequent the stockouts, the more lost sales.
Conclusion
To avoid the knock-on effects of overstocking and understocking, companies need a real-time view of their inventory, both online & offline. At DataWeave, we help companies decrease their latency period between stock replenishment and efficiently plan their supply chain. If you need help tracking your eCommerce product availability, reach out to the experts at DataWeave to know how we can help!
Last week the DataWeave analytics team identified the states most impacted by the baby formula shortage, only to see feminine hygiene products following similar trends with price increases occurring alongside a supply chain shortage. In this analysis, the team has identified over four hundred feminine hygiene products made available across eighteen retailer and delivery intermediary websites from August 2021 through June 2022, to see how product availability and price changes correlated.
Within the feminine care products analyzed, both tampons and sanitary pads show to have under 58% availability as of June 2022. For sanitary pads, June 2022 shows the lowest level of product availability at around 58%, which has steadily declined each month from August 2021 where product availability started around 69%. Tampons however, reached their lowest level of availability in April 2022 at 45%, and appear to be slowly recovering each month, now reaching around 53% availability in June 2022.
Product Availability for Feminine Care Products – June 2022
The Evolution of the Tampon Shortage by Retailer
Looking at tampons in more detail and at a retail level, we can see how much and how often product availability fluctuated from August 2021 through June 2022 across Kroger, Meijer, Baker’s Plus, Target and Walmart websites. Baker’s Plus, for example, shows the lowest product availability, maintaining an average of around 39% from October 2021 through June 2022. Kroger appears to be a notable exception only facing stock availability issues in March and April 2022, achieving nearly 78% availability in June 2022, which is 16% greater than the other retailers analyzed.
Product Availability for Tampons by Retailer – June 2022
Feminine Care Product Price Changes Over Time
When looking at Pricing Intelligence insights and average price changes occurring alongside declining product availability for tampons and sanitary pads combined, we see a very different story. Tampons have seen steep price hikes from December 2021 onward, increasing the most in June 2022, up 6% compared to prices seen in November 2021. This steep price increase could be attributed to consistently low availability for tampons that has been seen in recent months.
To the contrary, sanitary pads have seen a price reduction of around 1.25% as of June 2022 compared to average prices seen in November 2021. While prices are lower in June 2022 for sanitary pads, the percentage by which they are lower is shrinking in recent months, potentially for the same reasons related to decreasing product availability.
Price Change for Feminine Care Products – June 2022
When looking at month-over-month average price changes for tampons only, we can clearly identify which months had the biggest price changes, noting price hikes that lead to the currently high prices seen in June 2022. In March and May 2022, over 10% of tampons offered had seen a price increase, and around 8% had seen significant price increases of more than 10%.
Month-Over-Month Price Changes for Tampons – June 2022
eCommerce Intelligence Provides Early Visibility to Evolving Trends
Price increases don’t seem to be stopping anytime soon given there was a 3.6% price hike seen on average in May 2022 versus April, with June seeing yet another .6% increase from May’s prices. That being said, as the market evolves and feminine hygiene products stabilize, our team will continue to provide visibility to critical pricing and product availability changes to enable our clients to stay ahead of the curve.
From a baby formula shortage to a tampon shortage, what category will be next to follow the supply chain shortage trend? Follow our blog for access to the latest insights and be sure to reach out to our team if there is any particular category you are interested in tracking next, or for access to more information on our Commerce Intelligence and Digital Shelf solutions.
As the baby formula shortage continues, retailers and brands are working quickly to meet evolving consumer demand, considering supply chain driven headwinds, a baby formula recall, and inflationary-driven impacts. The DataWeave analytics team has actively tracked marketplace changes, alongside reports from the FDA, for the baby formula category at a state-level, and has shared the latest snapshot of product availability through June 7th, 2022, below.
Average Baby Formula Product Availability by State – June 2022
While the U.S. has reached an average of 84% baby formula availability the first week of June 2022, given recent news headlines related to the baby formula shortage, and tracking out of stock encounters by state, we see a continued decline in availability throughout the Midwest versus product availability levels seen in May 2022.
Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky all show average availability for baby formula to be less than 50%, with Wisconsin being impacted the most at less than 18% average availability. While Texas shows an average availability improvement of 3.5% from the first two weeks of May 2022 to the first week of June 2022 as noted in the below chart, availability is also very low overall at less than 60%.
Average Change in Baby Formula Product Availability by State – May 2022 to June 2022
Outside of the Midwest and Texas, the other states for consumers to be cautious in are California, Virginia, and South Carolina as their month-over-month average change in availability also declined 4%, 12.6% and 8.2% respectively. Below is a snapshot of where the baby formula availability average started as of May 1st through the 15th, 2022.
Average Baby Formula Product Availability by State – May 2022
Baby Formula Product Availability Changes – March 2021 through May 2022
At an aggregated level overall, the availability for baby formula was relatively stable across all retailers considered within our analysis from March 2021 through September 2021, but has been on a steady decline ever since, starting at 81.7% availability in September and ending at 53.8% availability in May 2022 as noted in the below chart.
Monthly Average Availability for Baby Formula Across Major Retailer Websites
Looking at baby formula availability at a retail level, we saw yet again not all availability challenges were alike, by month or retailer. Costco.com lead the other retailers within our analysis for greatest average availability from March 2021 through May 2022, but had one of the lowest availability percentages at 62.7% in May 2021, and dropped to the lowest availability of the group in May 2022 at 37.5%.
Average Availability for Baby Formula Across Major Retailer Websites
Baby Formula Prices Increase as Availability Changes
While unnecessary price gouging is prohibited, price increases are still happening at a slow and steady rate across all the accounts included within our Pricing Intelligence analysis given external market factors outside of baby formula recall related stockout scenarios.
Kroger.com experienced the greatest average price increases overall, with the peak being in May 2022 at a 19% increase, 8% higher than other retailers on average, versus prices seen in March 2021 for the same baby formula products. The most significant price hike occurred on Kroger.com from December 2021 to January 2022. Other retailers like H-E-B, Target and Wegman’s have had minimal price changes from March 2021 through May 2022.
Average Price Inflation for Baby Formula, Indexed to March 2021
Address the Baby Formula Shortage With eCommerce Intelligence
As the market continues to evolve and baby formula supply works its way to catching back up to demand, our team will continue providing critical pricing, merchandising, and competitive insights at scale, to enable retailers and brands to develop data-driven growth strategies that directly influence their eCommerce performance, accelerate revenue growth and drive profitability.
Be sure to reach out to our Retail Analytics experts for access to more details regarding the above analysis, or for more information on our Commerce Intelligence and Digital Shelf solutions, and let us know what other category insights you’d be interested in seeing this year.
Business has been anything but usual this holiday season, especially in the digital retail world. The holiday hustle and bustle historically seen in stores was once again occurring online, but not as anticipated given the current strength of consumer demand and the reemergence of COVID-19 limiting in-store traffic. While ‘Cyber Weekend’, Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, continues to further its importance to retailers and brands, this year’s performance fell short of expectation due to product shortages and earlier promotions that pulled forward holiday demand.
Holiday promotions were seen beginning as early as October in order to compete with 2020 Prime Day sales, but discounting, pricing and availability took an opposite direction from usual. This shift influenced our team to get a jump start on our 2021 digital holiday analysis to assess how drastic the changes were versus 2020 activity, and to understand how much of this change has been influenced by inflationary pressures and product scarcity.
Scarcity Becomes a Reality
Our initial analysis started by reviewing year-over-year product availability and pricing changes from January through September 2021, leading up to the holiday season, as detailed in our 2021 Cyber Weekend Preliminary Insights blog. We reviewed popular holiday categories like apparel, electronics, and toys, to have a broad sense of notable trends seen consistently throughout various, applicable marketplaces. What we found was a consistent decline in product availability over the last six months compared to last year, alongside an increase in prices.
Although retailers significantly improved stock availability in November and early December 2021, even digital commerce giants like Amazon and Target were challenged to maintain consistent product availability on their website as seen below. While small in magnitude, there is also a declining trend occurring again closer toward the end of our analysis period, post Cyber Weekend, across all websites included in our analysis.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability insights for Home & Garden, Jewelry & Watches, Clothing & Shoes, Bed N Bath, Lighting & Ceiling Fans categories
Greater Discounts, Higher Prices?
With inflation at a thirty-nine year high, retailers and manufacturers have realized they can command higher prices without impacting demand as consumers have shown their willingness to pay the price, especially when threatened by product scarcity. Our assessment is that while some products and categories have responded drastically, manufacturers’ suggested retail prices (MSRPs) have increased nearly seven percent on average from January to December 2021. MSRP adjustments are not taken lightly either, as this is an indication increased prices will be part of a longer-term shift in product strategy.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Amazon.com & Target.com each month in 2021 comparing price increases from January 2021 base
Our 2021 pre-Cyber Weekend analysis reviewed MSRP changes for select categories (Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion) on Amazon and Target.com, and found around forty-eight percent of products on Amazon and thirty-five percent of products on Target.com have increased their MSRPs year-over-year, but kept pre-holiday discount percentages the same.
Looking more specifically as to what year-over-year changes occurred on Black Friday in 2021, we observed MSRPs increasing across the board for all categories at various magnitudes. This indicates why 2021 discounts appeared to be greater than or equivalent to 2020 for many categories, when in reality consumers paid a higher price than they would have in 2020 for the same items.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – MSRP Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Black Friday November 27th, 2021, versus average MSRP pricing for the same SKU count from November 20-26th 2021
On Amazon.com, categories like health & beauty have already increase MSRPs by a much greater percentage and magnitude versus Target.com leading up to and during Black Friday 2021, while other categories like furniture have increased MSRPs evenly on average across both retail websites. The below chart cites a few specific examples of year-over-year SKU-level MSRP, promotional price, and discount changes within found within the electronics, furniture, fashion, and health & beauty categories.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – MSRP Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Black Friday November 27th, 2021, versus average MSRP pricing for the same SKUs on Black Friday November 26th, 2020.
Fewer, but Deeper Discounts
From October through early November 2021, fewer products were discounted compared to this same period in 2020, and the few that were saw much deeper discounts apart from the home improvement category. The most extreme example we saw in discounts offered was within furniture where only three percent of SKUs were on discount in 2021 compared to twenty-six percent in 2020. Interestingly, the magnitude of discount was also higher pre-Cyber Weekend 2021 versus 2020, but this trend was not exclusive to furniture and was also seen within electronics, health & beauty, and home improvement.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Amazon.com & Target.com Pre-Black Friday average selling price during November 20-26th 2021 versus average selling price from November 13-19th 2021 compared to Pre-Black Friday average selling price during November 19-25th 2020 versus average selling price from November 12-18th, 2020.
Within the furniture category, the subcategories offering the greatest number of SKUs with price decreases on Black Friday 2021 were rugs by a wide margin, followed by cabinets, bed and bath, and entertainment units, but the magnitude of discounts offered were all under twenty percent.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Amazon.com and Target.com on Black Friday November 27th, 2021, versus average pricing for the same SKUs from Pre-Black Friday November 20-26th 2021 and Black Friday November 26th, 2020, versus average pricing for the same SKUs from Pre-Black Friday November 19th-25th 2020
Accounting for this phenomenon could have been retailers’ attempts to clear inventory for SKUs which hadn’t sold even during the period of severe supply chain shortages. With more products selling at higher prices this year, retailers were also able to use fewer SKUs with greater discounts to attract buyer in hopes of filling their digital baskets with more full-priced goods, helping to protect margins heading in to Cyber Weekend. Scarcity threats also encouraged consumers to buy early, even when not on promotion, to ensure they would have gifts in time for the holidays.
The same trends seen pre-Cyber Weekend 2021 were also seen on Black Friday with a year-over-year decrease in the percentage of SKUs offered on discount versus 2020, and steeper price reductions for the discounted products which can also be attributed to the increase in MSRPs.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Amazon.com and Target.com on Black Friday November 27th, 2021, versus average pricing for the same SKUs from Pre-Black Friday November 20-26th 2021 and Black Friday November 26th, 2020, versus average pricing for the same SKUs from Pre-Black Friday November 19th-25th 2020
2021 Black Friday Price Increases?
We all know Black Friday is all about price reductions, discounts and deals and so it’s rare to see actual price increases, yet for Black Friday 2021, trends ran counter to this. We observed price increases across all categories for around thirteen to nineteen percent of SKUs, with an average price increase of around fifteen percent in 2021 versus an average of only two percent in 2020.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Amazon.com and Target.com on Black Friday November 27th, 2021, versus pricing for the same SKUs from Pre-Black Friday November 20-26th 2021 and Black Friday November 26th, 2020, versus average pricing for the same SKUs from Pre-Black Friday November 19th-25th 2020
At an account level, we noticed a few interesting differences happening on Black Friday 2021 versus 2020 regarding category price changes. On Target.com, almost ninety percent of the bed and bath SKUs analyzed had a price change on Black Friday in 2021 versus 2020 with eighty-two percent presenting a higher price year-over-year versus only around seven percent showing a decrease, where on Amazon nearly forty-four percent of bed and bath SKUs showed an increase in price and around thirty-eight percent showed a decrease. Except for the health and beauty category on Target.com, more than half of the SKUs in each category saw a price increase on Black Friday versus a price decrease.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Amazon.com and Target.com on Black Friday November 27th, 2021, versus average pricing for the same SKUs on Black Friday November 26th, 2020.
The magnitude of year-over-year price changes seen on Black Friday 2021 was significant across all categories, but the magnitude of price increases found on Amazon.com within the health and beauty category outpaced the rest by far. We reviewed three hundred and sixty-five SKUs on Amazon.com within the health & beauty category and saw almost eighty-three percent of them had a price change with around thirty-one percent decreasing prices and around fifty-two percent increasing prices. This means that within the health & beauty category on Amazon.com, more than fifty percent of the SKUs tracked were sold at a one hundred and seventy-six percent higher price on average during Black Friday 2021 versus 2020.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Amazon.com and Target.com on Black Friday November 27th, 2021, versus average pricing for the same SKUs on Black Friday November 26th, 2020.
The subcategories offering the greatest number of SKUs with price increases on Black Friday 2021 were cameras, followed by men’s fragrances, laptops, and desktops & accessories, but the magnitude of discounts offered were all under ten percent.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Insights for Bed & Bath, Electronics, Furniture, Healthy & Beauty, and Fashion categories on Amazon.com and Target.com on Black Friday November 27th, 2021, versus pricing for the same SKUs from Pre-Black Friday November 20-26th 2021 and Black Friday November 26th, 2020, versus average pricing for the same SKUs from Pre-Black Friday November 19th-25th 2020
The Aftermath Post-2021 Cyber Weekend
Extending this analysis beyond the holiday weekend, we analyzed price change activity from December third through the ninth across the top US retailers (chart below) and found that price decreases have been very minimal, comparatively speaking. Though there was a spike in number of price decreases from December 8th to the 9th, the percentage of SKUs with price decreases was still very low (less than three percent). We anticipate this trend will continue into 2022.
Source: Commerce Intelligence – Pricing insights for Home & Garden, Jewelry & Watches, Clothing & Shoes, Bed N Bath, Lighting & Ceiling Fans categories
A Sign of Things to Come
A confluence of inflationary trends, product shortages and consumer liquidity have driven many marketplace changes to occur simultaneously. Government programs in the form of stimulus checks, have put extra money in consumers’ hands, and so they’ve been more willing to spend. That, coupled with the shock in the supply chain, has motivated people to buy far ahead of the 2021 holiday season. Hence, retailers have needed to rely much less on across-the-board discounts. Promotions have been more strategic – we’ve seen deeper discounts over fewer products, likely used to draw consumers in to buy certain items, and once they’re there, customers are buying everything else at a non-discount level. When these factors once again normalize, we could see a return to the “race to the bottom” that has occurred since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, but for once, retailers may be able to maintain some pricing power as the 2021 holiday shopping season played out.
Even though performance was not as anticipated and holiday sales did not grow as rapidly as they did in 2020, Cyber Monday was still the greatest online shopping day in 2021. Through it all, retailers managed to keep their digital shelves stocked and orders filled in time for the holidays for the most part, running the risk of housing aged inventory if goods didn’t arrive in time. Despite predictions for steep promotions in January 2022, with supply chains still challenged and inflationary pressures still full steam ahead, we don’t anticipate much in the way of enhanced discounts to continue beyond the holidays.
Access to these types of real-time digital marketplace insights can enable retailers and brands to make strategic decisions like how and when to address inflationary pressures, while also supporting many other day-to-day operations and help drive profitable growth in an intensifying competitive environment. Continue to follow us in the coming weeks for a detailed 2021 year-end review across more retailers and categories. Be sure to reach out to our Retail Analytics experts for access to more details regarding the above analysis.
The explosive growth of online shopping has forced brands to re-examine their e-commerce processes to stay competitive and profitable. In particular, out-of-stocks are a common, costly retail challenge, as product shortages frustrate online shoppers – and even prompt them to leave brands.
According to McKinsey & Company, forty-eight percent of consumers switched to a different brand in 2020 because those products were in stock. Among these consumers, seventy-three percent plan to keep using the new brands, linking product availability gaps to the erosion of sales and loyalty. Conversely, brands with effective inventory planning and replenishment can keep items in stock, drive sales and improve the customer experience.
Retailers like Walmart, collaborating with these brands to meet customer demand, are still facing inventory challenges but, as noted in 2021 Q3 earnings, inventory was up almost twelve percent year-over-year as they worked to stay ahead of increased holiday demand. They have also adjusted in-store operations to accommodate ever-growing e-commerce demands, especially within grocery-centric categories, as digital grocery buyers now amount to more than half the U.S. population.
Maximizing Conversions with Category Insights
Walmart’s dot-com strategy is paying off in spades, considering they surpassed Amazon as the leading U.S. grocery e-commerce retailer in 2020 and grew another forty-one percent in Q3, 2021. Our team has been actively tracking digital shelf analytic KPIs on Walmart.com to identify inventory and promotional performance improvement opportunities at a category level to support brands in capitalizing on these digital growth opportunities.
The latest analysis is summarized below, reviewing average category availability and discount trends occurring each week of the month, from May to August 2021, at a category level. A recent report found the 29th of each month to be the busiest day for online sales because consumers often get paid at the end of the month, which made DataWeave analysts wonder:
Which categories are maximizing their growth potential on Walmart.com and where are the greatest opportunities for improvement during periods of increased demand?
How do increased demand periods (like payday) impact category online availability?
Are category promotions offered at the right times throughout the month to best support demand?
When Seasonal Demand for Groceries and Payday Merge
Across all Walmart.com food categories tracked, Week 5 – where payday commonly falls for most consumers, had the lowest average product availability, while Week 4 had the highest average product availability for all categories except Deli and Fruits and Vegetables. These findings may inspire Walmart’s brand partners to rethink their inventory and assortment planning, replenishment and even pricing efforts to maintain a healthy stock closer toward the end of the month to match higher demand.
The categories with the greatest difference in average availability during Week 5 versus the rest of the month were Snacks & Candy, Beverages and Alcohol, indicating consumers consistently made these types of purchases closest to payday, when income was highest throughout the month. Seasonality is a secondary factor that influenced demand for these items given events like Memorial Day, Fourth of July, Summer Break, and Back-to-School shopping all took place during our analysis. Additionally, most holidays overlapped payday, which also furthered Week 5 demand.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average availability percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
Coupling availability with discounts allows us to consider whether consumers buy more in Week 5 due to high discounts or increased purchasing power, or both. In reviewing the average category discounts offered within the same grocery-centric categories analyzed above, we found almost every grocery category showed a higher discount in Week 5 compared to the rest of the month, except for Bread & Bakery and Alcohol.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average discount percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
Regarding Alcohol, during Week 4, when average availability was the highest, the average discounts offered were the lowest. This can indicate inventory was primed for payday shoppers (and the holidays of course). Bread & Bakery offers the greatest average discounts when inventory levels are lowest on average, indicating Week 3 is a great time to stock up, while Week 4 might be a great time to buy the freshest inventory.
The greatest average discounts in Week 5 were in Snacks & Candy, Pantry and Fruits & Vegetables. Deeper discounts for Snacks & Candy in Week 5 may have helped brands compete for consumers’ disposable income despite being a discretionary category. Pantry brands’ discounts may have reflected a need to compete for shoppers’ attention. During this period, consumers were out of the house more and less likely to use these grocery staples compared to earlier lockdown periods and cooler months.
Making Specialty Categories and Health a Priority for Online Shoppers
Interestingly, the only two categories where inventory was higher in Week 5 versus all other weeks each month were ‘Special Diets’ foods and ‘Summer Flavors’, although ‘Special Diets’ foods consistently maintained the lowest level of average availability each week across all food categories analyzed. This consistent lack of inventory could indicate a great opportunity for brands to increase inventory for dietary products sold on Walmart.com.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average availability percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
The average availability for ‘Summer Flavors’ foods verifies brands are maintaining a solid replenishment strategy for these seasonal items, and a high likelihood consumers will happily find what they need to plan their Summer gatherings on Walmart.com. One alarming factor we found was the change in average discounts offered during Week 5 versus Weeks 1 through 4, indicating promotions surrounding payday may be driving sales volume versus organic demand.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average discount percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
Digital Growth Opportunity in Meal Kits and Kids’ Meals
Two categories primed for growth, according to Statista, are meal kits and kids’ food and beverages. Their research indicates retail sales for kids’ food has grown steadily year-over-year since 2013, and a recent report also indicates meal kit sales are expected to more than double 2017 sales in 2022, reaching $11.6 billion in the U.S., spurred by pandemic-induced demand. A concerning find in our research indicates both categories, ‘Easy Meal Solutions’ and ‘Kid Friendly Foods’ on Walmart.com, showed great volatility when it comes to in-stock availability. For example, in Week 1, ‘Easy Meal Solutions’ had an average availability nearly half the average of the rest of the month (around nineteen percent versus nearly thirty-eight percent), and in Week 5, payday week, ‘Kid Friendly Foods’ saw the biggest drop in average availability compared to Weeks 1 through 4 (over sixty-seven percent versus seventy-five percent) indicating supply may not be keeping up with the heightened demand.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average availability percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
The heightened average discounts offered during Week 5 for ‘Baby’ and ‘Pets’ items indicate two categories consumers will most likely stock up on during payday.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average discount percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
Back to School Stock-Outs
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in August, likely boosted by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments. Meanwhile, product shortages and other supply chain issues slowed 2021’s back-to-school sales, possibly affecting school supplies’ and clothing availability on Walmart.com. According to our analysis, the average product availability in Walmart.com’s school supplies category fell from over sixty-two percent during Weeks 1 through 4 to nearly forty-two percent in Week 5.
Warmer weather, seasonal events, reduced lockdowns, and vaccination efforts led more Americans to resume in-person socializing, giving reason to update their spring and summer wardrobes. In July, Forbes shared that three-quarters of shoppers are purchasing apparel, accessories and shoes the most. On average, only around sixty-three percent of clothing items were available on Walmart.com during Weeks 1 through 4. However, in Week 5, that figure plummeted to just over thirty-eight percent, the most significant drop among all categories.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average availability percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
Demand for new fashion remained high throughout this period, seemingly fueled organically, as only moderate additional discounts took place in Week 5, and although the average discount on school supplies was only around twenty-seven percent during Weeks 1 through 4, it surged to just over forty-seven percent in Week 5. Generous additional discounts in Week 5 may have inspired online shoppers to shift spending from clothing to school supplies in late July and August ahead of students’ return to the classroom.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average discount percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
Prioritizing Product Availability with Digital Advertising Strategies
Seventy-eight percent of B2C marketers increased their 2021 digital advertising spend to fuel online product discoverability (Share of Search), and sales and market share, but out-of-stock experiences simultaneously surged 172% this year from pre-pandemic levels. Paying for ads that drive traffic to your out-of-stock products can be as detrimental to your brand as a bad user experience. Our review of the ‘Featured Products’ sold on Walmart.com show consistent, low-levels of product availability each week throughout the months reviewed.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average availability percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
Additionally, the average discount offered on these products tended to be higher than most other categories reviewed, indicating brands participating in the featured product section of the website were not only investing in digital ads, but also doubling down with promotional activity as well.
Source: DataWeave Digital Shelf Analytics for Brands – Category average discount percentages from May to August 2021 between Week 1 (the 1st to the 7th day of the month) and Week 5 (the 29th, 30th and 31st day of the month).
How Brands can Replenish Their Digital Shelf
It is well known just how important it is to have products available during the right time of day, week, month, or season to improve customer satisfaction rates, but with your e-commerce store open 24/7 and omnichannel fulfillment strategies in place, it drastically changes the way in which strategic execution is prioritized for a retailer to reduce basket abandonment and for brands to build loyalty.
Our greatest takeaway from this analysis is realizing how crucial it is for brands to proactively track product availability and competitive pricing insights to stay ahead of the curve and achieve their digital growth goals. Early visibility to stock replenishment could help brands align with heightened cyclical and seasonal demand to avoid out-of-stocks and grow e-commerce sales.
This is why more leading brands now rely on our Digital Shelf Analytics solutions, including Pricing and Availability insights, to keep eCommerce planning agile, to maximize online conversions, and ultimately maintain shopper satisfaction and loyalty.
The exponential growth of eCommerce has forever changed holiday shopping as we know it. What was once led by the launch of Cyber Monday in 2005, has since expanded to ‘Cyber Five’ in 2018, now spans beyond an eight-week period, and is collectively the busiest digital shopping period of the year. Most retail websites have launched a ‘Thanksgiving Comes Early’ sales event for a mosaic of products, causing one to wonder how this ‘early start’ to holiday shopping will impact the traditional promotional cadence consumers have grown to expect to see launch closer to the holidays. Given today’s environmental challenges, threats of scarcity are also encouraging consumers to buy early, which could also impact traffic on the shopping days that have traditionally seen the highest sales volume from digital shoppers.
In the current environment, the onus will be on consumers to keep a watch for their categories of interest and buy them as and when they appear on sale in their favorite store, because there is no guarantee of sustained availability. Of course, they might return and buy at a different store if a better deal comes up, but there’s a time cost for the dollars saved. More broadly, there has been enough noise made about deals and discounts to keep consumer interest and curiosity going.
The early promotional start and heightened demand has influenced our team to get a jump start on our 2021 Black Friday analysis to look deeper at trends seen pre-Black Friday 2021 versus 2020. With this assessment, we can track how promotional prices and product availability rates may have changed throughout the event leading in to 2021 Cyber Five, and compare it to last year’s activity to understand how 2021 holiday sales may be impacted.
We reviewed popular holiday categories like apparel, electronics, and toys (for kids and pets), to have a broad sense of notable trends seen consistently throughout various, applicable marketplaces. What we found is a consistent decline in product availability over the last six months and as compared to last year, alongside an increase in prices.
We first analyzed availability changes for popular categories on Amazon, noted in the chart below, to understand how inventory may have changed throughout the year, and also compared to 2020. With the exception of batteries and solar power goods and books and maps, there appears to be consistency in greater product availability in 2021 versus 2020, but a slow decline in availability throughout 2021, leading into the holiday season.
Source: DataWeave Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability in-stock percentage from July 2020 through September 2021 for a sample size of 1000+ products on Amazon.com
When it came to our pricing analysis, we reviewed select categories on Amazon and Target.com, and found around fifty percent of products on both websites to have seen a price increase year-over-year, while only thirty-seven percent and sixteen percent of products saw a price decrease on Amazon and Target.com, respectively. We also see an increase in the manufacturer’s retail price (MRP) in 2021 versus 2020 for a very high proportion of products (forty-eight percent of products on Amazon and thirty-five percent of products on Target.com), but the discount percentages have remained the same.
Source: DataWeave Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Intelligence: MRP and promotional pricing for 1000+ products on Amazon and Target.com were analyzed from November 13th – 15th, 2021 versus Pre-Black Friday November 24th & 25th 2020
This indicates 2021 discounts may appear to be greater than or equivalent to 2020, but in reality, consumers will end up paying higher prices than they would have for the same items in 2020. The remainder of this article highlights our key findings found within each key category reviewed – Electronics, Apparel and Toys.
Electronics Category Analysis
The television category showcases a great example of how pricing fluctuations impact holiday promotional cadences. Based on our analysis, we found the average television price to have increased around seven percent from April to October 2021, as seen below and as noted within our analysis conducted with NerdWallet.
Source: DataWeave Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Intelligence: The change in average price captured for televisions sold on Amazon from May 2021 through October 2021.
In fact, on Amazon and Target.com, we see around eighty-four percent of the SKUs listed show both an MRP and promotional price increase in 2021 versus 2020 during pre-Black Friday times. One specific example found on Amazon is noted below for Samsung TV model QN65LS03TAFXZA, a 65 inch QLED TV that was priced at $1697 during this analysis at a fifteen percent discount from MRP, but was priced last year at $1497 without a discount from MRP. In essence, even though the TV offers a greater discount this year, it is actually more expensive than it was in 2020 at this same time of year.
Source: DataWeave Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Intelligence: MRP and promotional pricing analysis on Amazon.com comparing prices from November 13th – 15th, 2021 versus Pre-Black Friday November 24th & 25th 2020
Unlike TVs, the price of laptops has experienced a decrease over time based on our analysis conducted during the same timeframe, indicating these are a great buy for consumers this holiday season versus promotional offers seen in 2020.
Source: DataWeave Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Intelligence: The month-over-month change in average price captured for televisions sold on Amazon from April 2021 through September 2021.
Overall, our prediction is that within the electronics category, promotions during Cyber Five may be equivalent to last year’s offers, however, supply will be limited and the total spend versus last year will be greater to the consumer outside of Doorbuster deals offered on select models.
Apparel Category Analysis
The Luxury market is seeing a Roaring 20s-like feeling this season given the Covid-induced changes in work and lifestyle and higher disposable income. Therefore, our prediction is that prices for these goods are likely to remain flat, or offer very little discounts this season both due to supply constraints as well as higher demand. For example, our analysis on shoe pricing changes shows relative stability from April to October 2021.
Source: DataWeave Commerce Intelligence – Pricing Intelligence: The change in average price captured for shoes sold on Amazon from May 2021 through October 2021.
Given heightened demand and the Global shipping crisis, we anticipate luxury apparel categories to face out-of-stock challenges this holiday season, and therefore we also anticipate seeing less promotional activity for these items as well during Cyber Five 2021. To dive deeper into the severity of the impact, we looked at availability for clothing, accessories, and footwear categories from August 2020 until present to verify our thesis.
Focusing only on clothing, accessories, and footwear, these categories followed the same downward trending pattern regarding product availability decreases this year with a decline from June (seventy-six percent versus eighty-six percent in May 2021) to September 2021 (the lowest rate seen at sixty-eight percent availability), followed by a partial recovery in October and November (achieving seventy-seven percent availability).
Source: DataWeave’s Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability: 10k SKUs tracked across 11 retailers US websites (Farfetch, Brownsfashion, NetAPorter, EndClothing, 24s, Selfridges, Ssense, Harrods, Luisaviaroma, MyTheresa, MrPorter) tracked daily stock status in apparel categories; Availability is calculated as percent of instances when product is in stock against all instances tracked.
Not all recoveries were the same however, and given this, we predict accessories to have the lowest availability rate and greatest risk of facing out of stocks heading into Cyber Five. From May through November 2021, accessories availability continued to decline significantly from month to month, beginning at eighty-three percent in May and ending at seventy-four percent in November. Given this continued decline and with Black Friday right around the corner, we don’t anticipate inventory levels to increase enough to meet the increased holiday demand.
Source: DataWeave’s Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability: 10k SKUs tracked across 11 retailers US websites (Farfetch, Brownsfashion, NetAPorter, EndClothing, 24s, Selfridges, Ssense, Harrods, Luisaviaroma, MyTheresa, MrPorter) tracked daily stock status in apparel categories; Availability is calculated as percent of instances when product is in stock against all instances tracked.
Toys & Games Category Analysis
As noted by DigitalCommerce360, we also anticipate toys to be one of the greatest impacted categories this holiday season given the continued decline in overall availability for these items on Amazon.com, as one great example. Within our category analysis, we saw a steady decline in availability from March 2021 through June (eighty percent to sixty-one percent), followed by a period of stability from June through August (approximately sixty percent), followed by another decline from September through October, finally reaching the lowest availability of fifty-six percent (down twenty-four percent from March 2021).
Source: DataWeave’s Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability – hundreds of Toys & Games SKUs tracked on Amazon.com on a weekly basis from March 2021-October 2021
The biggest sub-category within the toys department on Amazon, Sports and Outdoor Play, followed the same trend as Toys and Games overall through June 2021, also reaching its lowest availability of fifty-six percent. Instead of continuing along that pattern, Sports and Outdoor Play started on a recovery path, ending at a relatively high availability level of sixty-seven percent in October, which is only five percent lower than its highest availability (seventy-two percent in March 2021). Games and Accessories, the second largest sub-category in Toys and Games, had a continuous decline starting with eighty-nine percent in March 2021, reaching its lowest availability of fifty-four percent in October.
Source: DataWeave’s Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability – hundreds of Toys & Games SKUs tracked on Amazon.com on a weekly basis from March 2021-October 2021
The sub-category Tricycles, Scooters and Wagons interestingly had its highest availability from July to September 2021 (around eighty percent), unlike other sub-categories which as a whole, had their lowest availability during the same timeframe. From September through October, there was a significant decline (fourteen percent), reaching its lowest availability of sixty-seven percent. The sub-category Babies & Toddlers started on a continuous decline from its highest availability of eighty percent in April to its lowest availability of fifty-six percent in October.
Source: DataWeave’s Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability – hundreds of Toys & Games SKUs tracked on Amazon.com on a weekly basis from March 2021-October 2021
*Please reach out to our Retail Analytics experts for access to sub-category details available within the above analysis on the Toys and Games category on Amazon.com.
Pet Toys Category Analysis
When it comes to in demand holiday toys, you can’t forget about the needs for gifts for our furry friends and family. We also tracked sub-categories such as dog, cat, and bird toys, following the same methodology as tracked within Toys and Games to track pet toy availability changes.
Source: DataWeave’s Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability – hundreds of Pet Toys SKUs tracked on Amazon.com on a weekly basis from March 2021-October 2021
Dog toys, the biggest sub-category out of the three pet toys analyzed, had high availability – ninety percent in March 2021, but started to decline reaching a low of sixty-five percent in October. There was a period of stability from April to August (averaging seventy-seven percent), followed by a significant decline of over thirteen percent in from September to October. Cat toys, the second largest sub-category, also had its highest availability in March (eighty-nine percent) followed by a steady decline to sixty-six percent in June, a recovery from July to August (achieving seventy-three percent), followed by another decline during September and October, reaching its lowest availability of sixty-three percent (down twenty-six percent from eighty-one percent in March). Interestingly, dog toys which has a product count eight times greater than cat toys, had higher availability than cat toys during each of the months considered during the analysis.
Source: DataWeave’s Commerce Intelligence – Product Availability – hundreds of Pet Toys SKUs tracked on Amazon.com on a weekly basis from March 2021-October 2021
In Conclusion
If we consider discounts and availability to be a good indicator of sales for the 2021 holiday season, with the Global shipping crisis looming over this year’s event, we expect retailers to have trouble keeping their inventory well stocked, which might affect growth rates. That being said, while discounts may be muted and popular items may come on very limited sales given constraints, we believe digital sales on Black Friday will see the highest year-over-year growth to date, given a number of supporting factors: scarcity threats increasing demand and the reason to buy, and consumers waiting to see if holiday offers surpass those see in the early start promotions, followed by the sudden rush to buy on Black Friday so as not to risk a given product being out of stock beyond this time period.
We also anticipate seeing a continued decline in product availability day-to-day as we progress throughout Cyber Five 2021. Given the analysis conducted on 2020 trends, (we tracked nearly a one percent decline in availability on Black Friday 2020 vs. Thanksgiving Day, followed by a two percent decline on Cyber Monday), our data indicates products went out-of-stock at a faster rate then also.
Ultimately only the digital-savvy retailers and brands will thrive during these opportune times, while others will continue to be in catch-up mode. Access to real-time marketplace insights can enable a first-to-market strategy, while having access to historical patterns can also help react faster to commonly seen future market factors, such as another pandemic or Global shipping crisis. These types of insights also support day-to-day operations, enabling retailers and brands to accelerate eCommerce growth, determine systems to distinguish their online strategies, discover efficiencies and drive profitable growth in an intensifying competitive environment.
Continue to follow us in the coming weeks to see the insights we track through Cyber Five 2021, and be sure to reach out to our Retail Analytics experts for access to more details regarding the above analysis.
