The DataWeave Blog

Category: Inflation

  • Beyond Basic Price Monitoring: Advanced Applications of Competitive Intelligence

    Beyond Basic Price Monitoring: Advanced Applications of Competitive Intelligence

    It’s up to senior leadership, whether you’re a Chief Strategy Officer, Pricing Executive, or Commercial Director, to think big picture about your company’s competitive intelligence strategy. For more junior team members, it’s easy to get caught in the “this is how we’ve always done it” mindset and continue to go through the motions of price monitoring.

    You don’t have that luxury—it’s up to you to find and implement new ways to move beyond basic price monitoring and usher your company into an era of achieving actionable insights through competitive intelligence. There is much more to gain from competitive data than simple price monitoring.

    How can retailers leverage clean, competitive data to uncover strategic insights beyond basic price comparisons? This article will help you shift your mindset from tactical monitoring to strategic insight generation. We’ll see how sophisticated analysis of clean and refined competitive data can reveal competitor strategies, regional and geographic opportunities, and overall market trends.

    It’s time to shift away from standard reporting, which should be left for your pricing owners and end users, and towards gaining competitive intelligence to shape your holistic company pricing strategy. With the right tools, you can make this shift a reality.

    Regional Price Intelligence

    One significant opportunity you should take advantage of is a greater understanding of regional price intelligence. Understanding the nuances that shape how products, categories, and other retailers’ prices according to geographical differences can set your company up to win customer trust and dollars at checkout.

    Understanding geographic and regional pricing strategies

    Geographic price intelligence helps leaders leverage market opportunities based on where sales are happening. Variations in how products and categories are priced across regions often reflect competitor tactics, local demand, and cost structures.

    Let’s consider an example that impacts a broad geography, such as the entire continental United States – egg prices. Eggs are a staple grocery item and are frequently a loss leader in stores. This means they are products priced below their cost specifically to draw customers into stores.

    However, Avian Flu outbreaks affecting millions of birds have become more common recently. These outbreaks drive the cost of eggs higher as flocks must be culled to prevent the spread of the disease. This means that retailers must act to maintain acceptable margins or losses without frightening away customers or losing their trust.

    Avian Flu has been especially bad in Iowa and California. Retailers in these regions face tough decisions during outbreaks. They need to figure out how to balance the high prices required to cover the supply shortages with maintaining consumer trust that this staple product will not be perceived as ‘overpriced.’ Customers expect retailers to be fair even when supply chain issues make it challenging to keep prices stable.

    Another example impacting the broader USA is credit card defaults. Credit card defaults are reaching levels unseen since the financial crisis of 2008. $46 billion worth of credit card balances were written off in the first nine months of 2024 alone. This unprecedented figure highlights the fact that many Americans are struggling financially. Higher-income earners continue to do ok, but lower-income families are feeling the pressure more than ever.

    Understanding the differences between the geographies you sell in can help you construct your pricing strategies better. This is especially true as consumers brace themselves for more anticipated economic hardship.

    Retailers must set realistic financial targets without overpricing their catalogs. Otherwise, they risk losing customers who would otherwise have bought their products. Competitive intelligence can help retailers understand how economic disparities impact core consumer bases.

    Pricing leaders can leverage insights around geographic variations in supply, demand, and competitor pricing to help in situations like these. With how important eggs are, changes to their price can spill over into other categories. And with credit card defaults affecting hundreds of thousands of Americans, having a way to dive into these topics can help shape overarching strategies.

    Customer perception is a recurring theme in competitive intelligence. It’s not only about the actual value your brand offers but the perceived value based on historical context, current events, and competition.

    Leveraging Regional Price Differences for Strategic Advantage

    On the topic of customer perception, there are strategic ways to use customer perception to your advantage. One of these is detecting cross-market arbitrage opportunities using competitive intelligence and actioning them.

    But what is cross-market arbitrage? It’s the practice of exploiting the differences in price across different markets or regions. As a retailer, you can use cross-market arbitrage to your advantage by finding disparities in market conditions and strategically pricing your products to entice customers or offer more value. These opportunities can be in demand, supply, or competitive pricing. Acting quickly in markets where frequent disruptions happen can drive your business forward.

    DataWeave’s advanced competitive intelligence tools can analyze regional market trends to help you respond to real-time local demand fluctuations or cost pressures.

    Local Market Dynamics

    Pricing isn’t a one-size-fits-all operation. Where and what you’re pricing truly matters. Pricing teams should take price zones into account when constructing pricing strategies. This is because pricing isn’t equivalent across locations; it’s localized. Understanding this fact is critical for category-specific considerations at the macro and micro levels.

    This map shows a retailer’s regional price differentials on a breakfast basket. With the ability to access and refine your data, you can better construct maps like this one to track local market dynamics. Determine where you need to differentiate prices based on locality, understand the strategic stance of your competitors, and plan if you start to see changes in competitive price zones.

    Map shows a retailer's regional price differentials on a breakfast basket

    Competitor Strategy Detection

    As a retailer, you should continuously monitor your competitors, whether they’re succeeding or stagnating. One example of a major retailer that is seeing growth even during this challenging economic time is Costco. Costco is an interesting case because they do not have stores in every major city or even in every state.

    Costco has its brand strategy down, and it is tied to the pricing strategy. Costco has committed to its customers to provide quality items at competitive prices, and they’ve delivered even in a volatile economy. Costco has managed to maintain competitive prices on core merchandise and make strategic pricing adjustments on items that matter most to members. Their private label brand, Kirkland Signature, highlights their value-first approach. They continue to lead with price reductions like:

    • Organic Peanut Butter: $11.49 → $9.99
    • Chicken Stock: $9.99 → $8.99
    • Sauvignon Blanc: $7.49 → $6.99

    Costco has figured out how to balance premium offerings for cost-conscious consumers with standardly priced items filling the shopper’s basket. This demonstrates that they have a pricing strategy that relies on competitive intelligence and market trends.

    With the correct data and tools, any retailer can conduct research to discover more about their competitors and gain usable insights into their implemented pricing strategies. Once established, this can act as an early warning signal so you can take action.

    For example, understanding whether a retailer operates with a stable Everyday Low Price (EDLP) strategy or a more dynamic High/Low pricing approach is crucial when building and maintaining the integrity of your pricing strategy.

    Data should be able to show you things like:

    • When holiday price decreases start to accelerate
    • How quickly a retailer responds to cost increases (especially at the category or item level)
    • The cadence of seasonal campaigns and their impact on pricing behavior

    When we move beyond the numbers, these patterns tell a story about how to win in today’s competitive retail landscape. After all, pricing isn’t just a standard reporting tactic. In its truest form, it’s a strategy rooted in understanding the bigger picture of your consumers, competition, and the economy.

    Actionable Intelligence Framework

    With a practical system to turn insights into action, your company’s pricing strategy is much more likely to drive actual results. Merely collecting data and churning out out-of-date reports won’t cut it. Instead, begin to identify patterns and insights for accurate competitive intelligence. Use this simple framework to start setting up a comprehensive competitive intelligence process.

    • Setting up monitoring systems: Leverage technology to monitor and aggregate data on your competition, market trends, and consumer behavior. Ensure the system chosen can clean and refine the data along the way so it’s ready to be analyzed.
    • Creating action triggers: Define clear thresholds and triggers based on key insights. These can be things like price changes of a certain amount, competitor moves, assortment changes, or regional and geographic trends. These triggers should prompt specific, pre-planned actions for your team to capitalize on opportunities.
    • Response protocol development: Change management is easier with a plan. Work on building out and training your teams on protocols for specific triggers. When something arises, they know the protocol to take advantage of the opportunity or mitigate the challenge effectively.
    • Performance measurement: Measure the impact of your team’s protocol-based actions with the help of pre-determined KPIs and then hone your approach to competitive intelligence based on the results.

    Competitive Intelligence at Your Fingertips

    Shifting from a latent standard reporting and price monitoring mindset to a growth mindset centered around competitive intelligence doesn’t need to be a struggle. The key is to lean on the tools that will accelerate your company’s journey to finding the right insights and putting action behind them quickly.

    Start by conducting a competitive intelligence maturity assessment to evaluate your organization’s current state and identify areas for improvement. Then, create a capability development roadmap for your company to track efficacy and progress toward your goal.

    Want to talk to the experts in competitive pricing intelligence? Click here to speak with the DataWeave team!

  • Breaking Down Grocery Discounts This Black Friday

    Breaking Down Grocery Discounts This Black Friday

    As shoppers flocked online and to stores during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the grocery category stood out as a key battleground for retailers. With inflation affecting consumer spending, discounted groceries have become a critical driver for both shopper savings and retailer competitiveness.

    In fact, according to the NRF, one of the top shopping destinations during Thanksgiving weekend were department stores (42%), online (42%),and grocery stores and supermarkets (40%). Clearly, consumers are looking to stock up in bulk on their groceries to maximize their savings.

    To understand the pricing dynamics in the grocery category, DataWeave analyzed grocery discounts across leading grocers, uncovering significant trends that shaped consumer choices during this holiday shopping period.

    Our research encompassed retailers like Amazon, Target, and Walmart, examining their discounting strategies across subcategories, alongside trends in share of search for leading CPG companies.

    Also check out our detailed analysis of discounts and pricing for health & beauty and home & furniture this Black Friday.

    Key Grocery Market Stats for Black Friday-Cyber Monday 2024

    • Retailer Discounts: Walmart offered the highest average absolute discount at 27.6%, followed by Amazon at 20.4% and Target at 14.0%
    • Subcategory Insights: Beverages Category at Walmart saw the deepest discounts, with an average of 33.4%
    • Top Gaining Brands: Cesar experienced the largest increase in share of search during the sales period (+3.89%)

    This blog will dive deeper into grocery discount trends and brand-level strategies, offering insights for retailers looking to stay competitive in the grocery sector.

    Our Methodology

    For this analysis, we tracked the average discounts offered by major U.S. grocery retailers during the Thanksgiving weekend, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday. We focused on key subcategories within the grocery segment, capturing trends in discounting strategies.

    • Sample Size: 18,324 SKUs
    • Retailers Tracked: Amazon, Walmart, Target
    • Subcategories Reported On: Fresh Produce, Dairy & Eggs, Pantry Essentials, Snacks, Frozen Foods, Meat & Seafood, Household Essentials, Beverages, Pet Products, Baby Products
    • Timeline of Analysis: November 10 to 29, 2024

    In the following insights, the Absolute Discount represents the reduction of the selling price compared to the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP). The Additional Discount reflects how much lower the selling price is during Black Friday compared to its price a week before the sale. This metric reveals the actual or effective value of the sale event, beyond the standard discounts typically offered.

    Key Findings

    Retailer-Level Insights

    Average Discounts Across Leading Grocery Retailers - Black Friday Cyber Monday 2024
    • Walmart emerged as the leader in grocery discounting, offering the highest average absolute (27.6%) and additional (18%) discounts.
    • Amazon adopted a mid-tier discounting strategy, with average absolute discounts of 20.4%.
    • Target, while more conservative, maintained competitiveness in select subcategories like baby products.

    Subcategory Insights

    Average Discounts Across Leading Grocery Retailer Subcategories - Black Friday Cyber Monday 2024
    • Pantry Essentials saw Walmart leading with an average discount of 31.2%, appealing to budget-conscious consumers stocking up for the holidays.
    • Fresh Produce showed consistent discounting across retailers, with Amazon slightly ahead at 27%.
    • Beverages stood out for significant discounting at Walmart, with an impressive 33.4% average discount.

    Brand-Level Insights

    Average Discounts Across Leading Grocery Brands - Black Friday Cyber Monday 2024
    • Lay’s led in absolute discounts (37.52%) and additional discounts (26.23%) showcasing aggressive pricing in the snacks subcategory.
    • Good & Gather maintained its competitive edge with strong discounts, appealing to price-conscious consumers seeking value.
    • Brands like Blue Buffalo (pet food brand) offered significant absolute discounts, but with a low additional discount of just 2%, the overall impact of the sale event on effective value was limited.

    Share of Search Insights

    Gains and Losses in Share of Search Across Leading Grocery Brands - Black Friday Cyber Monday 2024
    • Cesar (dog food brand), Tide (laundry staple) and Doritos saw significant gains in share of search, reflecting successful promotional strategies.
    • Brands like Pampers (baby diapers brand), Healthy Choice, (frozen foods brand) and Pedigree (pet food brand) experienced a decline, indicating less effective engagement during the sale period.

    Who offered the lowest prices?

    In the previous analysis, we focused on the top 500 products within each subcategory for each retailer, showcasing the discount strategies for their highlighted or featured items. However, to identify which retailer offered the lowest or highest prices for the same set of products, it’s necessary to match items across retailers. For this, we analyzed a separate dataset of 1433 matched products across retailers to compare their pricing during Black Friday. This approach provides a clearer picture of price leadership and competitiveness across categories.

    Here are the key takeaways from this analysis.

    Category-Level Analysis

    Retailers Offering Most Value - Lowest Priced - Grocery - Black Friday 2024
    • Walmart is the lowest priced retailer overall for the grocery category, with an impressive average discount of 44.60%. This significant discount advantage makes Walmart a leading option for value-seeking consumers.
    • Target follows with strong discounts of 36.73%, indicating solid pricing in comparison but less aggressive than Walmart.
    • Interestingly, Amazon was the most expensive in Grocery, with an average discount of only 6.3%.

    Subcategory-Level Analysis

    Lowest Priced Retailer Across Major Subcategories- Grocery - Black Friday 2024
    • Walmart leads in various subcategories such as Pet Products (21.12%), Dairy & Eggs (13.79%), Household Essentials (13.05%), Frozen Foods (15.07%), and Meat & Seafood (17.60%), showcasing its extensive value across the board.
    • Target excels in Beverages (14.58%) and Baby Products (15.00%) with competitive discounts, standing out in these specific subcategories.
    • Kroger provides notable value in Pantry Essentials (20.04%) and Fresh Produce (15.85%), although its overall average discount is lower than Walmart’s.
    • Amazon consistently ranks lower in terms of average discounts across most subcategories, highlighting it as less competitive for consumers seeking the lowest prices.

    Brand-Level Analysis

    Lowest Priced Retailer Across Leading Brands- Grocery - Black Friday 2024
    • Walmart also holds the top position for several key brands like Cheetos (14.92%) and Dannon (8.81%), making it the best option for consumers looking for budget-friendly choices across popular brands.
    • Target takes the lead for brands like Betty Crocker (25.20%) and Chobani (11.37%), showing that it can offer value for specific products.
    • Kroger maintains strong discounts for brands such as Delmonte (9.19%), but it does not outpace Walmart in the overall grocery brand comparison.
    • Amazon generally lags behind in average discounts for most brands, with Dannon (1.12%) and Chobani (2.43%) showing significantly lower discounts.

    Walmart is the lowest priced retailer in the grocery category and provides substantial value across a wide range of subcategories and popular brands. This ties in with Walmart’s ELDP pricing strategy. The retailer leads in overall average discounts and maintains its position as the go-to for price-conscious consumers. Target offers strong value in certain subcategories and brands but falls short of Walmart’s broad value based pricing advantages.

    What’s Next

    For grocery retailers, competitive pricing and targeted promotions are critical to driving sales during key shopping events. As consumers continue to prioritize value, staying ahead in the discounting game can significantly impact market share.

    For detailed insights into grocery discounting strategies and to explore how DataWeave’s solutions can help retailers optimize their pricing, contact us today!

    Stay tuned to our blog for further analyses of other categories during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

  • Back-to-School 2024 Pricing Strategies: What Retailers and Brands Need to Know

    Back-to-School 2024 Pricing Strategies: What Retailers and Brands Need to Know

    As summer winds down, families across the US have been gearing up for the annual back-to-school shopping season. The back-to-school season has always been a significant event in the retail calendar, but its importance has grown in recent years. With inflation still impacting many households, parents and guardians are more discerning than ever about their purchases, seeking the best value for their money.

    The National Retail Federation has forecasted that this season could see one of the highest levels of spending in recent years, reaching up to $86.6 billion. As shoppers eagerly stock up on back-to-school and back-to-college essentials, it’s crucial for retailers and brands to refine their pricing strategies in order to capture a larger share of the market.

    To understand how retailers are responding to the back-to-school rush this season, our proprietary analysis delves into pricing trends, discount strategies, and brand visibility across major US retailers, including Amazon, Walmart, Kroger, and Target. By examining 1000 exactly matching products in popular back-to-school categories, our analysis provides valuable insights into the pricing strategies adopted by leading retailers and brands this year.

    Price Changes: A Tale of Moderation

    The most notable trend in our analysis is the much smaller annual price increases this year, in contrast to last year’s sharp price hikes. This shift is a reaction to growing consumer frustration about rising prices. After enduring persistent inflation and steep price growth, which peaked last year, consumers have become increasingly frustrated. As a result, retailers have had to scale back and implement more moderate price increases this year.

    Average Price Increases Across Retailers: Back-to-School 2022-24

    Kroger led the pack with the highest price increases, showing a 5.3% increase this year, which follows a staggering 19.9% rise last year. Walmart’s dramatic price increase of 14.9% is now followed by a muted 3.1% hike. Amazon and Target demonstrated a similar pattern of slowing price hikes, with increases of 2.3% and 2.7% respectively in the latest period. This trend indicates that retailers are still adjusting to increased costs but are also mindful of maintaining customer loyalty in a competitive market.

    Average Price Increases Across Categories 2022-24: Back-to-School USA

    When examining specific product categories, we observe diverse pricing trends. Electronics and apparel saw the largest price increases between 2022 and 2023, likely due to supply chain disruptions and volatile demand. However, the pace of these increases slowed in 2024, indicating a gradual return to more stable market conditions. Notably, backpacks remain an outlier, with prices continuing to rise sharply by 22%.

    Interestingly, some categories, such as office organization and planners, experienced a price decline in 2024. This could signal an oversupply or shifting consumer preferences, presenting potential opportunities for both retailers and shoppers.

    Brand Visibility: The Search for Prominence

    In the digital age, a brand’s visibility in online searches can significantly impact its success during the back-to-school season. Our analysis of the share of search across major retailers provides valuable insights into brand prominence and marketing effectiveness.

    Share of Search of Leading Brands Across Retailers During Back-to-School USA 2024

    Sharpie and Crayola emerged as the strongest performers overall, with particularly high visibility on Target. This suggests strong consumer recognition and demand for these traditional school supply brands. BIC showed strength on Amazon and Target but lagged on Kroger, while Pilot maintained a more balanced presence across most retailers.

    The variation in brand visibility across retailers also hints at potential partnerships or targeted marketing strategies. For instance, Sharpie’s notably high visibility on Target (5.16% share of search) could indicate a specific partnership.

    Talk to us to get more insights on the most prominent brands broken down by specific product categories.

    Navigating the 2024 Back-to-School Landscape

    As we look ahead to the 2024 back-to-school shopping season, several key takeaways emerge for retailers and brands:

    1. Price sensitivity remains high, but the rate of increase is moderating. Retailers should carefully balance the need to cover costs with maintaining competitive pricing.
    2. Strategic discounting can be a powerful tool, especially for lesser-known brands looking to gain market share. However, established brands would need to rely more on quality, visibility, and brand loyalty.
    3. Online visibility is crucial. Brands should invest in strong SEO and retail media strategies, tailored to different retail platforms.
    4. Category-specific strategies are essential. What works for backpacks may not work for writing instruments, so a nuanced approach is key.
    5. Retailers and brands should be prepared for potential shifts in consumer behavior, such as increased demand for value-priced items or changes in category preferences.

    By staying attuned to these trends and remaining flexible in their strategies, businesses can position themselves for success in the competitive back-to-school retail landscape of 2024. As always, the key lies in understanding and responding to consumer needs while maintaining a keen eye on market dynamics.

    Stay tuned to our blog to know more about how retailers can stay aware of changing pricing trends. Reach out to us today to learn more.

  • Cracking the Code: How Retailers Can Adapt to Plummeting Egg Prices in 2024

    Cracking the Code: How Retailers Can Adapt to Plummeting Egg Prices in 2024

    Virtually every cuisine in the world uses eggs. They’re in your breakfast, lunch, dinner, and dessert — which is perhaps why the global egg market is expected to generate $130.70 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to grow to approximately $193.56 billion by 2029.

    More specifically, the United States is the fourth-largest egg producer worldwide. The country’s egg market is projected to generate $15.75 billion in 2024 and increase to $22.51 billion by 2029.

    This growth is driven by several factors, most notably:

    • Health-consciousness among consumers: Consumers value eggs for their essential nutrients and rich protein content.
    • Demand for convenience foods: Consumers’ preferences are shifting toward quick and easy foods, which drives demand for shell eggs and pre-packaged boiled or scrambled eggs.
    • Population Growth: A growing worldwide population increases the demand for eggs.
    • Affordability and accessibility: Eggs are an affordable and accessible nutrient-dense food source for many.

    Despite these factors contributing to the U.S. egg market’s growth, recent times have seen egg prices fall dramatically.

    Based on a sample of 450 SKUs, DataWeave discovered that egg prices in the U.S. fell by 6.7% between April 2023 and April 2024, dipping to its lowest (-12.6%) in December 2023.

    Egg Price Chart: Egg Prices USA Going Down 98.95% between April 2023 and April 2024

    So, what’s causing the decrease in egg prices?

    The Rise and Fall of Egg Prices: A Recent History

    In 2022, avian influenza severely impacted the United States. The disease affected wild birds in nearly every state and devastated commercial flocks in approximately half of the country.

    The 2022 incident was the first major outbreak since 2015 and led to the culling of more than 52.6 million birds, mainly poultry, to prevent the disease from spreading uncontrollably.

    With almost 12 million fewer egg-laying hens, the United States produced around 109.5 billion eggs in 2022 — a drop of nearly two billion from the previous year.

    Consequently, the cost of eggs soared, peaking at $4.82 a dozen — more than double the price of eggs in the previous year.

    The avian flu continues to affect egg-laying hens and other poultry birds across the United States. As of April 2024, farms have killed a total of 85 million poultry birds in an attempt to contain the disease.

    Despite the disease’s effects, production facilities have made significant efforts to repopulate flocks, leading to a steady increase in supply – and a much anticipated decrease in egg prices.

    According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there was an increase in producer egg prices in 2022, reaching a peak in November 2022, at which point they began to fall.

    Retailer’s egg prices followed suit. The egg price chart below depicts retailers’ declining egg prices over one year, from April 2023 to April 2024, with Giant Eagle showing the most significant price reductions and Walmart the least.

    Egg Price Chart Featuring Leading Retailers 2023-2024

    What Does the Future Hold for Egg Prices?

    The USDA reported recent severe avian flu outbreaks in June 2024. These outbreaks are estimated to have affected 6.23 million birds.

    With a reduction in egg-laying hens, egg prices are likely to increase — time will tell.

    Nonetheless, the annual per capita consumption of eggs in the U.S. is projected to reach 284.4 per person in 2024 from 281.3 per person in 2023. So for now, producers and retailers can rest assured of the growing demand for eggs.

    How Can Retailers Adapt to the Unpredictability of Egg Prices?

    Egg prices were down to $2.69 for a dozen in May 2024. However, they are still significantly higher than consumers were used to just a few years ago—eggs were, on average, $1.46 a dozen in early 2020.

    Additionally, while the avian flu puts pressure on producers, inflation and supply chain disruptions exert pressure on retailers.

    With such challenging egg market conditions, what can retailers do to maintain customer loyalty amid reduced consumer spending while maintaining profitability?

    1. Give the Customer What They Want: Increase Offerings of Organic, Cage-Free, and Free-Range Eggs

    As mentioned, Data Bridge Market Research’s trends and forecast report highlighted a significant increase in consumer health consciousness. Additionally, animal welfare increasingly influences consumers’ purchasing decisions when buying meat and dairy products.

    DataWeave data shows that the prices of organic, cage-free, and free-range eggs—such as those by brands like Happy Eggs and Marketside—have fallen less than those of non-organic, caged egg brands.

    Egg Price Chart Featuring Leading Egg Brand Prices 2023-2024

    2. Increase Private-Label Offerings

    Private labels typically offer retailers higher margins than national brands. These margins can shield consumers from sudden wholesale egg price swings, helping to preserve brand trust and consumer loyalty without sacrificing profitability.

    Moreover, eggs are particularly suited to private labeling, given their uniform appearance and taste and the lack of product innovation opportunities.

    Undoubtedly, this is why sales of private-label eggs dwarf sales of national egg brands in the United States. Statista reports that across three months in 2024, private label egg sales amounted to $1.55 billion U.S. dollars, while the combined sales of the top nine national egg brands totaled just $617.88 million U.S. dollars.

    3. Price Intelligently

    With the current and predicted fluctuations in egg prices over the foreseeable future, price competitiveness is paramount to margin management and customer loyalty.

    This is especially true when lower prices are the primary factor influencing the average consumer’s choice of supermarket for daily essentials purchases.

    AI-driven pricing intelligence tools like DataWeave give retailers valuable highly granular and reliable insights on competitor pricing and market dynamics. In today’s data-motivated environment, these insights are necessary for competitiveness and profitability.

    Final Thoughts

    Egg prices have fluctuated significantly due to the impact of avian flu. Despite recent price drops, future egg price increases are possible due to ongoing outbreaks. Retailers should adapt to unstable egg prices by increasing organic, free-range, cage-free, and private-label egg offerings while leveraging AI-driven pricing tools to maintain margins and customer loyalty.

    Speak to us today to learn more!

  • How Retailers and Brands Can Navigate Skyrocketing Olive Oil Prices in 2024

    How Retailers and Brands Can Navigate Skyrocketing Olive Oil Prices in 2024

    Olive oil, renowned for its complex flavor and myriad health benefits, holds a significant place in the global market, valued at $14.64 billion in 2023. It is anticipated to reach $19.77 billion by 2032, with a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.42%.

    This growth is fueled by:

    • Increased consumer demand for healthier oils.
    • Olive oil’s rising popularity in skincare products.
    • Greater retail availability.

    Interestingly, this market expansion occurs alongside rising olive oil prices, mainly due to a notable decrease in production. Eight European Union countries, which are the main producers, saw a dramatic drop in output from an average of 2.17 million tons to just 1.50 million tons in 2022—a 30.88% decline. Unfortunately, this drop in production comes as no surprise.

    Erratic weather patterns, rising temperatures, and exacerbating drought conditions in the Mediterranean basin have taken their toll. These climate changes disrupt the growing cycles of olive trees, leading to poorer crop yields and lower-quality olives.

    In the US, where olive oil constitutes 19% of all cooking oils sold and 40% of sales value due to its premium pricing, the market is expected to grow at an impressive CAGR of 11.31% between 2024 and 2032. This forecast is significant despite a recent dip in domestic consumption, which may further decline due to economic pressures. As a result, consumers must make difficult choices as they battle inflation, shrinkflation, and thin budgets.

    DataWeave’s Analysis of Rising Olive Oil Prices

    At DataWeave, we utilized our advanced AI-powered data aggregation and analysis platform to scrutinize the pricing trends of olive oils across key US retailers over the past year. Our analysis covered 130+ SKUs from major chains including Walmart, Kroger, Giant Eagle, and Target.

    The data revealed a notable escalation in olive oil prices, with consumers facing a sharp 25.8% increase from April 2023 to April 2024.

    This trend of rising costs was consistent across all analyzed retailers. Specifically, Walmart and Giant Eagle each reported a substantial 30% increase in their olive oil prices over the past year. In contrast, Target and Kroger experienced somewhat more modest hikes, at 20% and 15% respectively.

    Further investigation into individual brands within our sample highlighted that no brand is immune to the impacts of the ongoing supply shortages. Walmart’s own Great Value brand saw an exceptional 60% surge in prices. Other prominent olive oil brands such as Carapelli, Terra Delysia, and Bertolli also faced significant price increases, ranging from 20% to 50%.

    This across-the-board rise in prices underscores the widespread effect of supply constraints on the olive oil market, affecting both premium and private label brands alike.

    What Strategies Can Retailers and Brands Employ?

    In a market where consumer preferences and price sensitivities are rapidly evolving, retailers and brands must adopt versatile strategies without compromising on profit margins.

    Diversifying Brand Selection

    Retailers can enhance their appeal by offering a diverse range of olive oil brands, thereby stimulating competition among brands based on price, quality, innovation, and customer satisfaction. A well-curated selection that includes well-known brands like Filippo Berio and Bertolli, alongside emerging labels such as Terra Delyss, and premium options like Carapelli, allows retailers to meet a wide array of consumer preferences and budgets.

    For premium outlets, it might be beneficial to introduce more economical options than typically offered to attract budget-conscious consumers. Employing advanced assortment intelligence tools can provide retailers with crucial data, helping them make informed decisions about which brands to stock and promote, ensuring they meet consumer demand effectively while managing inventory costs.

    Data-driven Pricing

    With rising olive oil prices, competitive pricing is more crucial than ever. Retailers must strive to balance competitiveness with margin preservation. It’s essential for retailers to not just passively respond to market price increases but to actively ensure that their offerings are competitively priced relative to the market.

    This involves using sophisticated pricing intelligence tools, such as those provided by DataWeave, which track market trends and competitor pricing actions. These tools enable retailers to implement dynamic pricing strategies that respond promptly to market conditions and consumer demand shifts, helping to optimize sales and profitability.

    Diversifying Sourcing

    The traditional powerhouses of olive oil production, Spain and Italy, are now facing stiff competition from countries like Turkey and Tunisia. This shift is influenced by various factors, including currency fluctuations and changing trade policies, such as the imposition of tariffs on European olive oils by significant importers like the US. Retailers can take advantage of these changes by diversifying their sourcing strategies to include olive oil from non-traditional regions.

    The 2022/2023 season saw remarkable production levels from countries outside the Mediterranean basin, with Iran and China setting new production records. By broadening their supply chains to incorporate these emerging markets, retailers can benefit from lower production costs and introduce unique products to their consumers, enhancing both competitiveness and profit margins.

    Double Down on Private Labels

    Large retailers have successfully used their scale to develop strong private-label brands that can buffer consumers from price hikes in the olive oil market. By focusing on expanding and promoting their private-label offerings, retailers can provide cost-effective alternatives to national brands.

    Private labels generally have lower price points, making them particularly attractive during times of economic pressure and market volatility. Additionally, the development of private labels allows retailers to control more of their supply chain, from pricing to packaging, enabling them to offer high-quality products at competitive prices, thereby retaining customer loyalty and enhancing market share.

    Navigating Market Pressures

    High olive oil prices impact the entire supply chain, presenting varied challenges and opportunities:

    • Producers benefit from higher revenues but face increased pressure to maintain quality and yields in challenging climates. Adapting to these conditions with sustainable practices is crucial.
    • Exporters and Importers navigate tighter margins and greater risks due to tariffs and volume restrictions, requiring agility and strategic planning to adapt to market changes.
    • Retailers must carefully balance competitive pricing with rising procurement costs, affecting consumer affordability and potentially leading to shifts in buying patterns.
    • Consumers may seek cheaper alternatives or reduce their olive oil consumption, which influences overall market demand and pricing stability.

    These dynamics underscore the necessity for retailers and brands to adopt innovative and proactive strategies to navigate the volatile olive oil market effectively. By focusing on adaptive pricing, diversified sourcing, and customer engagement, businesses can enhance their resilience and secure long-term success in this competitive landscape.

    To learn more, talk to us today!

  • Cinco de Mayo 2024 Pricing Insights: An Analysis of Discounts Amid Inflation

    Cinco de Mayo 2024 Pricing Insights: An Analysis of Discounts Amid Inflation

    Cinco de Mayo is a vibrant celebration of Mexican-American and Hispanic heritage, marked by lively parades, festive tacos, and refreshing tequila across North America. For the service industry, brands, and retailers, this day offers a golden opportunity to roll out enticing promotions on beloved Mexican foods and beverages, drawing in large crowds and boosting sales.

    Americans love to indulge in Mexican cuisine during Cinco de Mayo. Take avocados, for example: despite inflation, avocado sales soared to 52.3 million units this year, marking a 25% increase from last year, according to the Hass Avocado Board’s 2023 Holiday Report. Such festive events see a significant sales spike, largely driven by appealing discounts and special offers.

    So, what discounts did retailers roll out this Cinco de Mayo?

    At DataWeave, our cutting-edge data aggregation and analysis platform tracked and analyzed the prices and deals on Mexican food and alcohol products offered by leading retailers. Our in-depth analysis sheds light on their pricing competitiveness during Cinco de Mayo, revealing how pricing strategies differed across various subcategories and brands.

    We conducted a similar analysis in 2022, allowing us to compare the prices of identical products this year versus last year. This comparison helps us understand the impact of inflation over the past two years on the prices offered today.

    Our Methodology

    For our analysis, we monitored the average discounts offered by major US retailers on over 2,000 food and beverage products during Cinco de Mayo, as well as in the days leading up to the event. Many retailers kick off their Cinco de Mayo promotions a week before, so we included the entire week leading up to May 5th in our analysis.

    Key Details:

    • Number of SKUs: 2000+
    • Retailers Analyzed: Target, Amazon Fresh, Safeway, Walmart, Total Wines & More, Sam’s Club, Meijer, Kroger
    • Categories: Food, Alcohol
    • Analysis Period: April 28 – May 5

    To truly demonstrate the value of Cinco de Mayo for shoppers, we concentrated on price reductions and additional discounts during the event. By comparing these with regular day discounts, we were able to highlight the genuine savings and benefits that Cinco de Mayo promotions offer to budget-conscious consumers.

    Our Findings

    Safeway led the pack with the highest average additional discount of 4.91%, covering 38.6% of their food inventory for Cinco de Mayo. Total Wine & More followed closely, offering an average discount of 3.46% across 70.8% of its tequila, whiskey, mezcal, and other spirit products during the Cinco de Mayo week.

    In contrast, Target provided minimal additional discounts, averaging just 0.8% over a small fraction (11.6%) of its SKUs. Similarly, Kroger’s additional discounts were also 0.8%, but they were spread across over 60% of its tracked products. Walmart (1.4%) and Amazon Fresh (1.2%) offered relatively conservative discounts during the sale period.

    During Cinco de Mayo, various brands rolled out attractive discounts to entice shoppers. Among beverage brands, The American Plains vodka led the way with the highest average discount of 20.80%. Coffee brands also joined the festivities with significant discounts: Death Wish Coffee at 14.30%, Dunkin’ at 11.10%, and Starbucks at 5.70%. Notably, Dunkin’ and Death Wish Coffee introduced complimentary beverages such as whiskey barrel-aged coffee and spiked coffee products to celebrate the event.

    In the wine category, Erath stood out with a 10% additional discount. However, brands like Jose Cuervo and Franzia offered more modest discounts of 0.70% and 1.80%, respectively.

    Food brands associated with traditional Mexican ingredients or products, such as tortillas, salsas, and spices, provided higher discounts compared to mainstream snack brands. For instance, McCormick (25%), El Monterey (13.3%), and La Tortilla Factory (16.7%)—known for ready-to-eat frozen foods, seasonings, and condiments—delivered the highest discounts. Other notable discounts included Jose Ole (12.5%), a frozen food brand, and Yucatan (8.3%), known for its guacamole.

    Safeway’s private label brand, Signature Select, offered a 5.20% discount. Additionally, Safeway provided deep discounts on brands like Pace, Herdez, and Taco Bell, indicating an aggressive discounting strategy. In contrast, brands closely associated with Mexican or Tex-Mex cuisine, such as Old El Paso, Mission, Rosarita, and La Banderita, offered relatively modest discounts ranging from 0.5% to 3.3%.

    The discount patterns varied between alcohol and food categories, with food brands generally offering higher discounts. This trend may be attributed to pricing being regulated in the alcohol industry. These differing discount levels highlight how brands navigated the balance between driving sales and maintaining profit margins during Cinco de Mayo, particularly in the context of inflation affecting costs.

    Impact of Inflation on Cinco de Mayo Prices (2024 vs 2022)

    To gauge the impact of inflation on popular Cinco de Mayo products, we analyzed the average prices at Walmart and Target between 2022 and 2024. These two retailers were chosen due to their prominence in the retail sector and the robustness of our sample data.

    At Walmart, the Tex Mex category saw the highest average price increase, rising by 22.51%. Other notable subcategories with significant price hikes include Condiments (23.21%), Vegetables/Packaged Vegetables (21.22%), and Lasagne (14.10%). Categories like Dips & Spreads (13.77%), Pantry Staples (14.92%), and Salsa & Dips (8.23%) experienced relatively lower increases.

    At Target, the Snacks subcategory had the steepest average price rise at 27.94%, followed by Meal Essentials (16.07%) and Deli Pre-Pack (8.82%). Categories such as Dairy (0.51%), Frozen Meals/Sides (7.11%), and Adult Beverages (7.41%) saw smaller price increases.

    Brands associated with traditional Mexican or Tex-Mex cuisine faced higher price hikes. Examples include Old El Paso (24.59% at Walmart, 8.70% at Target), Tostitos (35.44% at Walmart, 11.41% at Target), Ortega (30.59% at Walmart, 19.69% at Target), and Rosarita (14.39% at Walmart).

    In contrast, private label or store brands generally experienced lower price increases compared to national brands. For instance, Good & Gather (Target’s private label) saw a 9.55% increase, while Market Pantry (Walmart’s private label) had a 17.27% rise. This trend is understandable as retailers have more control over their costs with private label brands.

    The data clearly indicates that both Walmart and Target have significantly raised prices across various categories and brands, reflecting the broader inflationary environment where the cost of goods and services has been steadily climbing.

    Interestingly, we observed higher price increases at Walmart compared to Target. Although Walmart is renowned for its consumer-friendly pricing strategies, it too had to elevate grocery prices post-2022 to combat inflationary pressures. As consumers become more cost-conscious and reduce spending on discretionary items, Walmart and other retailers are now cutting prices across categories to align with shifting consumer behaviors.

    Mastering Pricing Strategies During Sale Events

    Our pricing analysis for Cinco de Mayo reveals compelling insights into the dynamics of retailer landscapes in the US. It highlights the enduring relevance of private label brands, even amidst fluctuating demand, showing the emergence of local, national, and small players vying for market share.

    As retailers navigate inflationary pressures and evolving consumer behaviors, understanding these pricing dynamics becomes crucial for optimizing strategies and bolstering market competitiveness. This analysis offers actionable intelligence for retailers seeking to navigate the intricate terrain of sale event promotions while addressing shifting consumer preferences and economic challenges.

    Access to reliable and timely pricing data equips retailers and brands with the tools needed to make informed decisions and drive profitable growth in an increasingly competitive environment. To learn more and gain guidance, reach out to us to speak to a DataWeave expert today!

  • Easter Candy Pricing Trends 2024: Winning Strategies for Retailers and Brands Amid Cocoa Price Surge

    Easter Candy Pricing Trends 2024: Winning Strategies for Retailers and Brands Amid Cocoa Price Surge

    Easter egg hunts just got more challenging for families this year as the price of chocolate and other candies has soared. The root of this price surge lies in a cocoa deficit, attributed to diseases affecting crops and the adverse effects of climate change on West African farms, which supplies over 70% of the world’s cocoa. This has resulted in a tripling of cocoa prices over the last year, causing a “cocoa crunch,” and severely impacted confectioners and chocolate makers.

    Reuters recently reported that Iconic brands such as Hershey’s and Cadbury find themselves grappling with the need to adjust to escalating costs for raw materials. Given that Easter is one of the top three candy-purchasing occasions, these manufacturers are contemplating raising their prices to sustain their profit margins.

    Despite the challenges posed by the cocoa shortfall and persistent inflation, the National Confectioners Association anticipates that Easter candy sales in the U.S. will match or even exceed last year’s figures, which amounted to approximately $5.4 billion. This expectation is predicated more on price increases than on a rise in sales volume.

    At DataWeave, our ongoing analysis of pricing trends across various consumer categories among retailers has provided insight into the evolving landscape of chocolate and candy prices in 2023 and 2024.

    Our Analysis of Inflation in Candy and Chocolate Prices

    Our study encompassed a broad array of 3,300 products from leading U.S. retailers, Amazon, Target, Kroger, and Giant Eagle. As illustrated in the following chart, the trajectory of prices over the past 15 months was compared against the average prices in January 2023. Our tracking focused on two key price points: the selling price, which represents the final cost to consumers after applying any discounts or promotions, and the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP), as determined by the brands themselves.

    The findings from our analysis indicate that the average selling price, primarily influenced by retailer decisions, has experienced a steady increase throughout 2023, reaching a peak at 16.2% above January 2023’s figures by December. As of March 2024, coinciding with the Easter season, the selling prices are approximately 10% higher than they were at the beginning of the previous year.

    Simultaneously, the MSRP has seen a consistent uptick, driven by the climbing costs of cocoa. Brands have adjusted their suggested prices accordingly, with the current MSRP standing about 7% above its January 2023 level, after having peaked at a 7.6% increase by December 2023. This reflects the direct impact of rising cocoa costs on product pricing strategies.

    Chocolate Candies Are Hit The Hardest

    Across all candies, chocolate-based products have witnessed significantly sharper price increases than their non-chocolate counterparts. In the past 14 months, the selling prices of chocolate items have surged by 14.9%, a stark contrast to the modest 4% rise observed in non-chocolate candies.

    This price escalation was particularly pronounced during the Christmas shopping period, a response to heightened demand, before experiencing a temporary decline in February.

    The diminishing availability of cocoa, coupled with rising costs for packaging and transportation, has compelled brands and retailers alike to transfer these added expenses onto the consumer. This dynamic underpins the distinct pricing trends observed across the candy spectrum, with chocolate items bearing the brunt of these cost pressures.

    Discounts Offered By Retailers and Brands to Entice Easter Shoppers

    In our analysis, we delved deeper to identify the retailers and brands offering the most compelling prices for Easter-centric confections, including Chocolate Eggs, Chocolate Bunnies, and Easter-themed gift packs.

    Kroger emerged as the frontrunner among the retailers we monitored, offering an impressive 19% discount on Easter candies. Giant Eagle followed with a solid 14% average markdown. Meanwhile, Amazon and Target provided more modest promotional discounts at 12% and 10%, respectively.

    Kroger is making significant efforts to ensure consumers have access to attractively priced Easter treats. The retailer planned to keep its doors open throughout the Easter weekend, featuring baskets brimming with discounted items such as Russell Stover chocolate bunnies, Brach’s jelly beans, Reese’s eggs, and assorted bags of popular candies from Snickers, Twix, and Starburst, among others. Additionally, Kroger is enhancing its value proposition through gift card offers and exclusive Easter deals for its loyalty program members.

    On the brand front, Starburst by Mars Wrigley leads with the steepest discount of 25%. Cadbury, under Mondelez, is not far behind, offering 21% off its mini eggs and other Easter treats, marking an increase from last year’s 17% discount. Ferrero Rocher is making a strong pricing move with an average 20% markdown on its Easter selections, including the chocolate bunny and squirrel figures.

    The beloved Peeps marshmallow candies by Just Born are being offered at an 18% discount this year, slightly less than the 23% discount seen in 2023, likely reflecting the impact of rising sugar costs, given their sugar and corn composition.

    Other notable brands, including M&M’s and the premium Swiss chocolatier Lindt, have elevated their average Easter discounts to 17% this year, up from the previous year’s discounts of 12%, and 10% respectively, showcasing a competitive pricing strategy to delight consumers this Easter season.

    Coping With Inflation This Easter Season

    Retailers and brands aiming to remain profitable and competitive in the current challenging environment can adopt a few strategic approaches:

    • Creative Product Bundling: Design innovative combo packs that mix chocolate and non-chocolate items. Such bundles can cater to diverse consumer preferences and budget ranges while preserving profit margins.
    • Encouragement of Bulk Purchases: Offer enticing discounts on larger quantities to promote bulk buying. This strategy can help amplify sales volumes, compensating for increased costs per item and fostering economies of scale.
    • Strategic Competitive Pricing: Keeping a vigilant eye on competitors’ pricing strategies is vital. Aim to capture market share through well-thought-out discount strategies that balance competitiveness with margin preservation. Leveraging advanced pricing intelligence, such as that offered by DataWeave, can provide invaluable insights for making informed pricing decisions.
    • Product Size Adjustments: Consider revising the size or weight of products as a cost management measure, a strategy known as “shrinkflation.” It’s crucial to approach this transparently, ensuring clear communication on packaging to uphold consumer trust.

    Adopting these strategies—focusing on bundle offerings, incentivizing bulk purchases, optimizing pricing strategies based on competitive intelligence, and thoughtfully adjusting product sizes—will be pivotal for confectioners to navigate the challenges posed by the cocoa price surge.

    For more information, reach out to us to speak to a DataWeave expert today!


  • Why Unit of Measure Normalization is Critical For Accurate and Actionable Competitive Pricing Intelligence

    Why Unit of Measure Normalization is Critical For Accurate and Actionable Competitive Pricing Intelligence

    Competitive pricing intelligence is pivotal for retailers seeking to analyze their product pricing in relation to competitors. This practice is essential for ensuring that their product range maintains a competitive edge, meeting both customer expectations and market demands consistently.

    Product matching serves as a foundational element within any competitive pricing intelligence solution. Products are frequently presented in varying formats across different websites, featuring distinct titles, images, and descriptions. Undertaking this process at a significant scale is highly intricate due to numerous factors. One such complication arises from the fact that products are often displayed with differing units of measurement on various websites.

    The Challenge of Varying Units

    In certain product categories, retailers often offer the same item in varying volumes, quantities, or weights. For instance, a clothing item might be available as a single piece or in packs of 2 or 3, while grocery brands commonly sell eggs in counts of 6, 12, or 24.

    Consider this example: a quick glance might suggest that an 850g pack of Kellogg’s Corn Flakes priced at $5 is a better deal than a 980g pack of Nestle Cornflakes priced at $5.2. However, this assumption can be deceptive. In reality, the latter offers better value for your money, a fact that only becomes evident through price comparisons after standardizing the units.

    This issue is particularly relevant due to the prevalence of “shrinkflation,” where brands adjust packaging sizes or quantities to offset inflation while keeping prices seemingly low. When quantities, pack sizes, weight, etc. reduce instead of prices increasing, it’s important that this change is considered while analyzing competitive pricing.

    Normalizing Units of Measure

    In order to effectively compare prices among different competitors, retailers must standardize the diverse units of measurement they encounter. This standardization (or normalization) is crucial because price comparisons should extend beyond individual product SKUs to accommodate variations in package sizes and quantities. It’s essential to normalize units, ranging from “each” (ea) for individual items to “dozen” (dz) for sets, and from “pounds” (lb), “kilograms” (kg), “liters” (ltr), to “gallons” (gal) for various product types.

    For example, a predetermined base unit of measure, such as 100 grams for a specific product like cornflakes, serves as the reference point. The unit-normalized price for any cornflake product would then be the price per 100 grams. In the example provided, this reveals that Kellogg’s is priced at $0.59 per 100 grams, while Nestle is priced at $0.53 per 100 grams.

    Various Categories of Unit Normalization

    1. Weight Normalization

    Retailers frequently feature products with weight measurements expressed in grams (g), kilograms (kg), pounds (lbs), or ounces (oz).

    2. Quantity or Pack Size Normalization

    Products are also often featured with varying pick sizes or quantities in each SKU.

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    3. Volume or Capacity Normalization

    Products can also vary in volumes or capacities with units like liters (L) or fluid ounces (fl oz).

    DataWeave’s Unit Normalized Pricing Intelligence Solution

    DataWeave’s highly sophisticated product matching engine can match the same or similar products and normalize their units of measurement, leading to highly accurate and actionable competitive pricing insights. It standardizes different units of measurement, like weight, quantity, and volume, ensuring fair comparisons across similar and exact matched products.

    Retailers have the flexibility to view pricing insights either with retailer units or normalized units. This capability empowers retailers and analysts to perform accurate, in-depth analyses of pricing information at a product level.

    In some scenarios, analyzing unit normalized pricing reflects pricing trends and competitiveness more accurately than retail price alone. This is particularly true for categories like CPG, where products are sold in diverse units of measure. For instance, in the example shown here, we can view a comparison of price position trends for the category of Fruits and Vegetables based on both retail price and unit price.

    The difference is striking: the original retail price based analysis shows a stagnation in price position, whereas unit normalized pricing analysis reflects a more dynamic pricing scenario.

    With DataWeave, retailers can specify which units to compare, ensuring that comparisons are made accurately. For example, a retailer can specify that unit price comparisons apply only to 8, 12, or 16-ounce packs, as well as 1 or 3-pound packs, but not to 10 and 25-pound bags. This precision ensures that products are matched correctly, and prices are represented for appropriately normalized units, leading to more accurate pricing insights.

    To learn more about this capability, write to us at contact@dataweave.com or visit our website today!

  • Backpacks to Binders: Examining Back-to-School Price Hikes in 2023

    Backpacks to Binders: Examining Back-to-School Price Hikes in 2023

    This year’s back-to-school shopping season has presented a considerable challenge for inflation-weary parents in the US. Despite chatter about alleviating inflation rates, the reality of rising prices tells a different story.

    As families hunt for school supplies, apparel, and other essential items for the academic year, the financial strain remains palpable. Experts note that elevated prices coupled with extensive shopping lists have compelled many parents to be more discerning about their purchases, expenditure thresholds, and preferred shopping venues. Essentially, shoppers are looking for more value for their money with every purchase. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2023 projection, this back-to-school season is poised to be the most financially demanding one to date. The forecast anticipates total spending exceeding $135 billion, marking an increase of over $24 billion compared to the previous year.

    At DataWeave, we continually monitor and analyze pricing activity among retailers across popular shopping categories. Our recent study delved into the pricing trends in the back-to-school category, which includes backpacks, fundamental school supplies, binders, planners, writing instruments, and more. The aim was to understand how the costs of back-to-school essentials have shifted in 2023 in comparison to 2022.

    Pricing of Back-to-School Products in 2023

    Our analysis, spanning 1200 products across major retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, Kroger, and Target reveals an average price surge of 9.8% in 2023 compared to the previous year.

    This upward pricing trend can be attributed to retailers’ strategic efforts to guarantee product availability and uphold quality during a period of heightened demand. As the back-to-school season sparks a surge in shopping activity, retailers like Kroger, Amazon, and Walmart are likely adjusting prices strategically to align with the expenses incurred in securing adequate supplies, managing logistics, and meeting operational demands.

    Average Price Increase 2022-23 By Retailer, Back-To-School Category

    Kroger led the way with a 12.1% price hike, the most significant among the scrutinized retailers. It was followed by Amazon with an average increase of 10.5% and Target with 7.8%. Walmart remains the outlier, with the smallest price increases for back-to-school products in 2023.

    Pricing across Categories and Subcategories

    Among the various categories examined, backpacks have experienced the most pronounced escalation, with prices soaring by a substantial 25%. Within the top 10 highest priced backpacks we looked at, the most substantial price hikes were observed for brands like The North Face (44%) and Fjallraven (33%).

    Average Price Increase 2022-23 By Category Across Retailers, Back-To-School

    The Office Organization category also witnessed a significant price surge of 16.8%, attributed to subcategories like File Folders and Desk Accessories, which saw respective price hikes of 31.3% and 25.2%.

    Categories like Memo Boards & Supplies (14.3%), Binders (12.5%), and Themebooks & Portfolios (12.4%) have likewise encountered notable price hikes. On the other end of the spectrum, Planners and Journals saw a modest rise of 4.4%, while Mailing and Shipping Supplies and Office Machine Accessories experienced comparatively lower price increases at 7% each.

    Interestingly, while items like Journals and Writing Instruments maintain popularity year-round, Backpacks and Memo Boards are particularly sought after during the back-to-school season, contributing to more substantial price hikes in these categories.

    On the other hand, consumers are consistently on the lookout for cost savings and deals from retailers, especially as they deal with inflationary pressures. In response, Kroger, Target, and Walmart have introduced back-to-school savings initiatives. For instance, Kroger is offering more than 250 items for less than $3 and some items for just $1, encompassing essentials such as paper, pencils, and glue sticks. Lower price increases across categories like journals and writing essentials could be attributed to these initiatives.

    Brands with the Highest Price Increases across Categories

    Across various back-to-school categories, some brands stand out with significant price increases. For instance, in the Office Organization category, Ubrands leads the pack with a substantial 38.30% surge, followed by Pendaflex at 30.80%. Meanwhile the Backpacks category sees Champion and Adidas recording significant price jumps of 29.6% and 23.6%, respectively.

    Brands with highest price increases across Back to School categories 2022-23

    Ubrands and Pentel from Basic School and Office Supplies Category also record high price increases at 22.70%, followed by Carolinapd from the Themebooks & Portfolios Category at 21.08%. 3M in Mailing in Shipping Supplies shows the lowest price increase at 6.80%.

    Interestingly, the ever popular Writing Instruments category showcases BIC at the forefront, exhibiting the most notable price escalation of 13.2%. Expo trails closely at 11.6%, while Uniball demonstrates an 11.4% increase. Even Sharpie, a beloved writing brand, displays a modest price uptick of 9.3%.

    The average price increments seen across brands mirror the overarching trend of increased costs throughout back-to-school categories.

    Navigating the Competitive Pricing Landscape During the Back-To -School Season

    Given the challenging pricing landscape during the back-to-school season, retailers would be wise to provide lower-cost alternatives alongside popular brand names. This allows parents to easily make substitutions while adhering to a school supplies list.

    With our competitive pricing intelligence solution, retailers can confidently analyze and monitor their prices relative to competition, ensuring they maintain a leadership position in pricing within their desired set of products, while posturing for margins with other products.

    To learn more about how we can help, reach out to us today!

  • Navigating the Turbulent Home and Furniture eCommerce Market in 2023 with the Power of Competitive Intelligence

    Navigating the Turbulent Home and Furniture eCommerce Market in 2023 with the Power of Competitive Intelligence

    The home and furniture retail industry is going through a turbulent time. As inflation reared its head mid-2022, leading retailers in the category have been grappling with the higher costs associated with producing and distributing their products, as well as reduced shopper demand. The rising costs of raw materials, transportation, and labor have had a direct impact on the pricing dynamics within the industry. For example, reports indicate container rates soared to nearly 10 times pre-pandemic levels towards the end of 2021.

    Furthermore, shoppers’ spending power has been constrained, while higher interest rates have suppressed demand. Retailers have had to adapt their assortment and pricing strategies to cater to a wider range of shopper preferences driven by changing lifestyles and a growing emphasis on sustainability. Post-pandemic, demand has been primarily driven by affluent shoppers.

    Towards the end of 2021, due to supply delays and disruptions, retailers heavily stocked up on available products. However, when demand subsequently decreased in 2022, they were left with a significant amount of unsold stock that was purchased at high rates. This put them in a difficult situation, as they had an excess of products but were unable to sell them even at reduced prices without impacting their profit margins. Additionally, staying competitive in a rapidly changing market environment was equally important.

    Given this context, it is crucial for home and furniture retailers to adopt a data-driven approach that utilizes competitive and market insights to consistently maintain or increase their online sell-through rates. DataWeave’s Commerce Intelligence solution offers exactly that, empowering retailers across various industry segments to stay updated on evolving consumer trends and competitor actions.

    To gain a better understanding of the pricing strategies employed by leading home and furniture retailers throughout the past year, we leveraged our proprietary data aggregation and analysis platform to track and analyze the pricing of a wide range of products across multiple retailers and subcategories within the industry.

    Our Research Methodology

    • Number of SKUs: 400,000+
    • Key retailers tracked: Amazon, Wayfair, Home Depot, Overstock, Target, Walmart
    • Key categories reported: Home and Office, Bed and Bath, Bathroom, Bedroom, Decorative, Dining Room, Kitchen, Garden & Patio, Hardware
    • Timeline of analysis: April 2022 to April 2023

    Our Findings

    Interestingly, our analysis indicates that average prices in the home and furniture category rose by around 5% between March 2022 and April 2023. However, there have been seasonal fluctuations in the prices over the course of the year.

    Among the various subcategories, the most substantial price surge was observed in home office equipment, with an uptick of 9.3% in January 2023 when compared to March 2022. The surge in demand for home office furniture, fueled by the widespread adoption of work from home arrangements, played a pivotal role in depleting inventories and consequently driving up prices. Additionally, the shift towards collaborative workspaces and the gradual expansion of office environments have contributed to the sustained demand for office furniture.

    Avg. price changes MoM across home and furniture subcategories from April 2022-23.

    While prices for several subcategories rose significantly, others experienced subdued growth, such as bed and bath. The subcategory experienced the lowest price increment, registering a modest 2.8% increase annually. This can be attributed to the impact of a subdued housing market and a decrease in first-time buyers, which may partly be due to the global recession and inflationary pressures.

    Moreover, retailers overestimated the demand for home furniture during the holiday season, leading to an overstocking of inventory. Consequently, prices experienced a dip from October to December 2022. In fact, this was a common trend across all home and furniture subcategories. As retailers emerged from the holiday season, prices rose to their highest level in January 2023, and have stayed relatively stable since.

    Some of these trends vary among retailers as each faces different challenges and responds in distinct ways.

    Wayfair, for example, shows a significant dip in pricing after October 2022, with prices stabilizing in 2023. This could be in response to the retailer’s shrinking consumer count, losing 5 million of its 1.3 billion consumers in 2022 due to declining demand.

    Avg. price change MoM within the home and furniture sector across retailers from April 2022-23.

    In fact, online furniture retailers like Wayfair and Overstock reported declines in annual revenue in 2022, as the furniture sector continued to normalize from the high spending seen during COVID-era lockdowns. Wayfair reported that its 2022 net revenue was $12.2 billion, down almost 11% from the year prior. The company also laid off 10% of its workforce in August 2022. Overstock’s reported annual net revenue in 2022 was $1.9 billion, a 30% decrease year-over-year.

    Interestingly, both companies took contrasting approaches in response to this situation. Wayfair opted for aggressive cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and a reduced marketing budget. On the other hand, Overstock focused on attracting new customers through influencer marketing and improving their app, aiming to expand their customer base. With a strategy geared towards younger buyers, Overstock allocated a larger marketing budget than ever before. Our data supports the fact that Overstock did not rely on price reductions to entice shoppers.

    Target has consistently maintained lower price increases compared to Walmart, defying the common perception of Walmart being more conservative in its pricing. Notably, Amazon also stood out minimal price increases throughout the year, being surpassed only by Wayfair since November 2022.

    As price sensitive shoppers increasingly compare prices before making a purchase decision, retailers need to ensure they are priced competitively in the market on a consistent basis to liquidate stock and gain market share without compromising significantly on margins.

    A Sophisticated and Versatile Product Matching Solution is Essential to Achieving Price Leadership

    Product matching plays a vital role in monitoring competitive prices and analyzing price leadership. Within the home and furniture category, there is often a multitude of representations for the same product across various online platforms. Furthermore, eCommerce websites offer a wide array of options, including variations in size, color, material, and similar products. Without an accurate and comprehensive method of matching these products, it becomes impossible to track and compare prices effectively, especially on a large scale. Thus, a versatile product matching engine tailored to the unique requirements of the home and furniture sector becomes essential.

    DataWeave offers an industry-leading product matching platform that harnesses advanced AI models specifically trained to identify and leverage multiple product attributes extracted from titles, descriptions, and images to accurately match products across websites. Additionally, our platform intelligently matches similar products based on a diverse range of extracted attributes. This empowers our retail partners to gain competitive pricing intelligence not only on exact product matches but also on similar and substitute products, as well as their respective variants.

    With our competitive pricing intelligence solution, retailers in the home and furniture industry can confidently analyze and track prices, ensuring they stay at the forefront of price leadership in their market.

    To learn more, reach out to us today!

  • Fashion eCommerce 2023: Leveraging Pricing Intelligence to Stay Competitive Despite Reduced Demand

    Fashion eCommerce 2023: Leveraging Pricing Intelligence to Stay Competitive Despite Reduced Demand

    The fashion industry is currently undergoing a period of stabilization after facing significant disruptions in recent years. Fashion retailers find themselves navigating not only changing consumer preferences but also the challenges brought about by inflation and supply chain issues that are remnants of the COVID-19 era.

    The effects of inflation have raised concerns regarding overabundance, rise of sustainable and pre-used fashion and declining sales, creating a mismatch between supply and demand within the market. As consumers scale back on spending due to rising prices, fashion retailers are left grappling with surplus inventory, heightened storage costs, and reduced profit margins.

    Consequently, these market dynamics have significantly impacted the pricing strategies employed by fashion retailers, resulting in dynamic shifts in pricing and competitiveness across different time periods, subcategories, and individual retailers.

    Counteracting this impact requires fashion retailers to adopt a data-driven approach that leverages competitive and market insights. They must adopt agile and versatile pricing strategies that enable advanced pricing and assortment management. By understanding their market position and the competitive landscape, retailers can effectively react to reduced demand and inflationary pressures without compromising heavily on their top line and profitability.

    At DataWeave, we harnessed the power of our proprietary data aggregation and analysis platform to track and analyze the prices of prominent fashion retailers to uncover unique insights into their price competitiveness over the past year, as well as understand how pricing strategies varied across diverse subcategories.

    Our Methodology

    For this analysis, we tracked the average price changes among leading US fashion retailers over 12 months to understand how their pricing across several fashion subcategories altered in response to supply chain inefficiencies, inflationary pressures, seasonal effects, and changing consumer preferences.

    • Sample: 88,000+ SKUs matched across 5 leading retailers
    • Retailers tracked: Amazon, Walmart, Target, Macy’s, Zappos
    • Key subcategories reported on: Boots, Bottoms, Coats, Denims, Flats, Heels, Jackets, Kids
    • Timeline of analysis: April 2022 to April 2023

    Our Analysis

    While prices have generally been rising in several industry segments, such as groceries, due to inflation, the fashion sector has experienced relatively stable prices, with even a few periods of price drops. In fact, average prices in April 2023 are 1.2% lower than those in April 2022. The main reason for this trend is that consumers have become cautious about discretionary spending on fashion in order to prioritize other necessities, resulting in lower demand and overstocking by retailers.

    In the first quarter of 2022, clothing accounted for only 3.9% of total expenditure by US consumers, down from 4.3% in 2019 before the pandemic. Additionally, in March 2023, 60% of fashion retailers in the US still had surplus goods, accounting for almost 20% of their entire stock. As demand decreased, fashion retailers started offering freebies with purchases, bundling products, giving away unwanted items, and notably, slashing prices.

    Subcategory level analysis of Average Price Change Month-on-Month between April 2022 – April 2023

    Our analysis at a subcategory level reveals that in winter 2022, seasonal demand led to the largest price increases of 6-11% in coats, boots, and jackets. However, these prices quickly declined afterward. In 2023, stabilization of raw material costs and a continuing decline in demand for non-essential apparel and fashion accessories are factors contributing to a significant drop in prices.

    Some of these trends vary among retailers as each faces different challenges and responds in distinct ways. Our data indicates that some retailers have chosen to increase their prices from Q3 2022 due to mounting pressure on profit margins, while others have further lowered prices due to increasing inventory levels.

    Average Price Change Month-on-Month Across Amazon, Macy’s, Walmart, Target, and Zappos between April 2022 – April 2023

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    Capability Spotlight

    Matching products across competitor websites is an essential part of tracking competitive prices and analyzing price leadership. In fashion, matching exact products is no mean feat. Websites often host a slew of variants in terms of size, color, material, etc. without any form of standardization in the way the products are represented. So fashion retailers often struggle with simply unusable pricing insights resulting from inaccurate and incomplete product matching. 

    DataWeave’s industry-leading product matching algorithm recognizes and leverages dozens of product attributes extracted from product titles, descriptions, and images to match products at very high levels of accuracy and coverage. What’s more, our platform can also match similar products based on a large variety of parameters, so our customers can benefit from a comprehensive competitive perspective.

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    For example, in August, Target reported a 90% plunge in profits during the second quarter of 2022, as shoppers concerned about inflation reduced spending on nonessential items. The company stated that its price cuts did not have the desired impact, resulting in a 1.5% increase in inventory compared to three months prior. As a result, we can see that Target’s average fashion prices spiked in August 2022 and have remained steady since then. Walmart also faced similar challenges and increased its prices in October 2022.

    However, during the same period in August 2022, Macy’s announced increased discounts to clear out excess inventory in preparation for the holiday shopping season. In the same announcement, Macy’s highlighted how the rising cost of groceries, which had experienced a double-digit increase, was impacting consumers’ budgets, changing their behaviors, and increasing the need for discounts. Our data reflects this, showing a significant drop in prices from October 2022 to January 2023.

    However, in January 2023, Macy’s successfully managed its inventory levels, reducing them from $6.4 billion in October 2022 to $4.3 billion in January 2023. As a result, average prices at Macy’s have started to rise.

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    For today’s fashion retailers, achieving a balance between expansion goals and profitability is crucial. It requires a meticulous examination of competitive and market insights on a regular basis to mitigate competitive pressures and navigate through these challenging times successfully.

    DataWeave’s platform offers retailers the insights they need to gain a competitive advantage. With access to accurate, timely, and actionable pricing and assortment insights, retailers can make informed decisions and stay ahead of the competition. To learn more, reach out to us today!

  • Impact of Inflation on Grocery: Pricing Insights on Leading US Retailers

    Impact of Inflation on Grocery: Pricing Insights on Leading US Retailers

    Inflation, like an invisible force, silently shapes the dynamics of economies, gradually eroding the purchasing power of consumers and leaving its imprint on various industries. High costs, hiring lags, and stagnating earnings pose severe challenges to businesses. One industry segment that intimately feels the impact of inflation is grocery, where price increases can be extremely concerning for the average consumer.

    Over the last 12-plus months, the US has experienced a notable rise in inflation, stirring up concerns and influencing the way we shop for everyday essentials. Rising costs of raw materials, transportation, and labor have all played a role in driving up prices. Additionally, disruptions in global supply chains and fluctuations in currency exchange rates have further exacerbated the situation, creating a complex web of interdependencies.

    To understand the magnitude of this phenomenon across leading e-retailers, we delved into an in-depth analysis of four major retail giants: Walmart, Amazon, Target, and Kroger.

    Each of these retailers possesses a unique business model and competitive strategy, as well as faces unique challenges. This leads to distinct approaches to managing inflationary pressures. Walmart for instance, expects operating income growth to outpace sales growth in 2023. Given the persistence of high prices and the potential for further macro pressures, the retailer is taking a cautious outlook. In 2022, Amazon’s eCommerce business swung to a net loss of $2.7 billion, compared to a profit of $33.4 billion the previous year.

    Amid these challenging circumstances, understanding the grocery pricing trends and strategies becomes imperative for retailers, both online and in stores to adapt and thrive in the current economic landscape. By examining their pricing trends, we can gain valuable insights into how these companies navigate the turbulent waters of the grocery industry against the backdrop of inflation.

    Our Research Methodology

    The data collected for our analysis encompassed a diverse range of products, from pantry staples like flour and rice to perishable goods like dairy and produce – a basket of around 600 SKUs matched across Amazon, Kroger, Target and Walmart, between January 2022 to February 2023.

    Further, we separately focused on the prices of a smaller subset of 30+ high-volume daily staples that are likely to yield higher sales and margins for these retailers.

    Average Selling Price of a Broad Set of Grocery Items

    Our analysis reveals that Walmart consistently offers the lowest prices, with an average of 8% below its closest competitor, Target, despite an annual price increase of about 5%. Walmart seems to prioritize a “stability and predictability” strategy over margin optimization. The retailer’s 8% growth last quarter indicates that this strategy is bearing fruit. However, it’s important to note that this approach may have its drawbacks as Walmart’s margins come under pressure.

    Average selling price trend across a basket of 500+ SKUs across Target, Walmart, Kroger, Amazon in the grocery category from Jan ’22 to Feb ’23.

    In order to weather inflationary pressures, Walmart may adopt a cautious approach to growth while also focusing on securing margins. Reports suggest that the retailer has been pushing back against consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers following a series of price hikes to counter inflationary cost pressures in early 2023. One of the reasons behind Walmart’s growth and increased sales can be attributed to ‘non-traditional’ higher-income households now seeking deals and discounts at Walmart as their spending power declines.

    Interestingly, Amazon emerges as the highest-priced retailer, followed by Kroger, which increased its prices by 10% throughout the year. Consumer perception commonly associates Amazon with the lowest prices, but the data tells a different story. In fact, Amazon has been charging 12% to 18% higher prices than Walmart for groceries and is still maintaining its success.

    While the company’s online sales declined by 4%, it saw a significant 9% increase in revenue from third-party seller services, such as warehousing, packaging, and delivery, in 2022. Amazon’s strong logistics and same-day delivery services give it a competitive advantage over other retailers, contributing to its revenue growth and margins. Interestingly, this presents an opportunity for Walmart and other retailers to increase prices while maintaining their strong competitive price positions.

    Kroger, on the other hand, seems to be aiming for a premium price perception, consistently raising prices almost every month. Kroger’s pricing strategy appears to be closer to Amazon’s.

    Average Selling Price for High-Volume Daily Staples

    Pricing strategies often change for different categories of products. To better understand this, we focused our analysis further on a small subset of 30+ high-volume staples across retailers. These include baked goods, popular beverages, canned food, frozen meals, dairy, cereals, detergents, and other similar items.

    Average selling price trend of 30+ high-volume daily staples across Target, Walmart, Kroger, Amazon in the grocery category from Jan ’22 to Feb ’23.

    Walmart, possibly overestimating the impact of inflation, has continued to keep its prices the lowest, potentially aiming to increase margins through volume.

    The level of price disparity across retailers is expectedly lower here, with Amazon and Kroger closely tracking Walmart’s average prices.

    Target’s pricing strategy stands out as it consistently emerges as the highest-priced retailer for daily staples, despite being one of the lower-priced retailers for a broader basket of grocery items. This suggests that Target’s underlying technology may not be as optimized to address market dynamics compared to other leading retailers. In our opinion, Target may want to strengthen its efforts to track pricing more intensely for this sub-category.

    A Data-fuelled Approach is the Need of the Hour

    In the challenging economic landscape, retailers and grocery stores are under pressure to maintain their revenues and margins. Adopting a comprehensive and dynamic pricing strategy is crucial. Understanding which product categories are experiencing price increases among competitors can help retailers make informed decisions on pricing at both the category and product level.

    Retailers should consider their balancing margin performance with consumers’ willingness to pay, rather than implementing broad price increases that may harm customer trust. Price increases can be challenging for both customers and merchants. Retailers who employ a data-driven and insight-based approach are more likely to succeed.

    Keep an eye on the DataWeave blog for analysis on pricing, discounting, stock availability, discoverability, and more, across retailers and brands from other industry segments as well.

    For immediate insights, subscribe to our interactive grocery price tracking dashboard. Better still, reach out to us to speak to a DataWeave expert today!

  • Feminine Hygiene Products Face Supply Chain Shortage and Price Increases

    Feminine Hygiene Products Face Supply Chain Shortage and Price Increases

    Last week the DataWeave analytics team identified the states most impacted by the baby formula shortage, only to see feminine hygiene products following similar trends with price increases occurring alongside a supply chain shortage. In this analysis, the team has identified over four hundred feminine hygiene products made available across eighteen retailer and delivery intermediary websites from August 2021 through June 2022, to see how product availability and price changes correlated.

    Within the feminine care products analyzed, both tampons and sanitary pads show to have under 58% availability as of June 2022. For sanitary pads, June 2022 shows the lowest level of product availability at around 58%, which has steadily declined each month from August 2021 where product availability started around 69%. Tampons however, reached their lowest level of availability in April 2022 at 45%, and appear to be slowly recovering each month, now reaching around 53% availability in June 2022.

    Product Availability for Feminine Care Products - June 2022
    Product Availability for Feminine Care Products – June 2022

    The Evolution of the Tampon Shortage by Retailer

    Looking at tampons in more detail and at a retail level, we can see how much and how often product availability fluctuated from August 2021 through June 2022 across Kroger, Meijer, Baker’s Plus, Target and Walmart websites. Baker’s Plus, for example, shows the lowest product availability, maintaining an average of around 39% from October 2021 through June 2022. Kroger appears to be a notable exception only facing stock availability issues in March and April 2022, achieving nearly 78% availability in June 2022, which is 16% greater than the other retailers analyzed.

    Product Availability for Tampons by Retailer - June 2022
    Product Availability for Tampons by Retailer – June 2022

    Feminine Care Product Price Changes Over Time

    When looking at Pricing Intelligence insights and average price changes occurring alongside declining product availability for tampons and sanitary pads combined, we see a very different story. Tampons have seen steep price hikes from December 2021 onward, increasing the most in June 2022, up 6% compared to prices seen in November 2021. This steep price increase could be attributed to consistently low availability for tampons that has been seen in recent months.

    To the contrary, sanitary pads have seen a price reduction of around 1.25% as of June 2022 compared to average prices seen in November 2021. While prices are lower in June 2022 for sanitary pads, the percentage by which they are lower is shrinking in recent months, potentially for the same reasons related to decreasing product availability.

    Price Change for Feminine Care Products - June 2022
    Price Change for Feminine Care Products – June 2022

    When looking at month-over-month average price changes for tampons only, we can clearly identify which months had the biggest price changes, noting price hikes that lead to the currently high prices seen in June 2022. In March and May 2022, over 10% of tampons offered had seen a price increase, and around 8% had seen significant price increases of more than 10%.

    Month-Over-Month Price Changes for Tampons - June 2022
    Month-Over-Month Price Changes for Tampons – June 2022

    eCommerce Intelligence Provides Early Visibility to Evolving Trends

    Price increases don’t seem to be stopping anytime soon given there was a 3.6% price hike seen on average in May 2022 versus April, with June seeing yet another .6% increase from May’s prices. That being said, as the market evolves and feminine hygiene products stabilize, our team will continue to provide visibility to critical pricing and product availability changes to enable our clients to stay ahead of the curve.

    From a baby formula shortage to a tampon shortage, what category will be next to follow the supply chain shortage trend? Follow our blog for access to the latest insights and be sure to reach out to our team if there is any particular category you are interested in tracking next, or for access to more information on our Commerce Intelligence and Digital Shelf solutions.

  • Baby Formula Shortage Continues Alongside National Price Increases – June 2022

    Baby Formula Shortage Continues Alongside National Price Increases – June 2022

    As the baby formula shortage continues, retailers and brands are working quickly to meet evolving consumer demand, considering supply chain driven headwinds, a baby formula recall, and inflationary-driven impacts. The DataWeave analytics team has actively tracked marketplace changes, alongside reports from the FDA, for the baby formula category at a state-level, and has shared the latest snapshot of product availability through June 7th, 2022, below.

    Average Baby Formula Product Availability by State - June 2022
    Average Baby Formula Product Availability by State – June 2022

    While the U.S. has reached an average of 84% baby formula availability the first week of June 2022, given recent news headlines related to the baby formula shortage, and tracking out of stock encounters by state, we see a continued decline in availability throughout the Midwest versus product availability levels seen in May 2022.

    Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky all show average availability for baby formula to be less than 50%, with Wisconsin being impacted the most at less than 18% average availability. While Texas shows an average availability improvement of 3.5% from the first two weeks of May 2022 to the first week of June 2022 as noted in the below chart, availability is also very low overall at less than 60%.

    Average Change in Baby Formula Product Availability by State: May-June 2022
    Average Change in Baby Formula Product Availability by State – May 2022 to June 2022

    Outside of the Midwest and Texas, the other states for consumers to be cautious in are California, Virginia, and South Carolina as their month-over-month average change in availability also declined 4%, 12.6% and 8.2% respectively. Below is a snapshot of where the baby formula availability average started as of May 1st through the 15th, 2022.

    Average Baby Formula Product Availability by State - May 2022
    Average Baby Formula Product Availability by State – May 2022

    Baby Formula Product Availability Changes – March 2021 through May 2022

    At an aggregated level overall, the availability for baby formula was relatively stable across all retailers considered within our analysis from March 2021 through September 2021, but has been on a steady decline ever since, starting at 81.7% availability in September and ending at 53.8% availability in May 2022 as noted in the below chart.

    Monthly Average Availability for Baby Formula Across Major Retailer Websites
    Monthly Average Availability for Baby Formula Across Major Retailer Websites

    Looking at baby formula availability at a retail level, we saw yet again not all availability challenges were alike, by month or retailer. Costco.com lead the other retailers within our analysis for greatest average availability from March 2021 through May 2022, but had one of the lowest availability percentages at 62.7% in May 2021, and dropped to the lowest availability of the group in May 2022 at 37.5%.

    Average Availability for Baby Formula Across Major Retailer Websites
    Average Availability for Baby Formula Across Major Retailer Websites

    Baby Formula Prices Increase as Availability Changes

    While unnecessary price gouging is prohibited, price increases are still happening at a slow and steady rate across all the accounts included within our Pricing Intelligence analysis given external market factors outside of baby formula recall related stockout scenarios.

    Kroger.com experienced the greatest average price increases overall, with the peak being in May 2022 at a 19% increase, 8% higher than other retailers on average, versus prices seen in March 2021 for the same baby formula products. The most significant price hike occurred on Kroger.com from December 2021 to January 2022. Other retailers like H-E-B, Target and Wegman’s have had minimal price changes from March 2021 through May 2022. 

    Average Price Inflation for Baby Formula, Indexed to March 2021
    Average Price Inflation for Baby Formula, Indexed to March 2021

    Address the Baby Formula Shortage With eCommerce Intelligence

    As the market continues to evolve and baby formula supply works its way to catching back up to demand, our team will continue providing critical pricing, merchandising, and competitive insights at scale, to enable retailers and brands to develop data-driven growth strategies that directly influence their eCommerce performance, accelerate revenue growth and drive profitability.

    Be sure to reach out to our Retail Analytics experts for access to more details regarding the above analysis, or for more information on our Commerce Intelligence and Digital Shelf solutions, and let us know what other category insights you’d be interested in seeing this year.

  • How Inflation has hit the Retail Industry

    How Inflation has hit the Retail Industry

    Inflation has resurfaced after a decade of tranquil price increases. The persistent COVID-related supply chain disruptions have been a driving factor in increasing consumer costs since some commodities are harder to come by. While inflation is a normal economic phenomenon, the current 3.81% inflation rate has increased the cost of living for families across the globe.

    Global Inflation Rate
    Global Inflation Rate. Source: Statista

    Worldwide inflation is expected to remain near 5.0% in early 2022 before gradually easing in response to industrial and agricultural commodity price declines. Additionally, the global consumer price inflation peaked from 2.2% in 2020 to 3.8% in 2021 and will average 4.1% in 2022 before subsiding to 2.8% in 2023.

    In this blog, you’ll learn about the impact of inflation on the Retail Industry. 

    What is Inflation?

    Inflation is an economic term that describes an overall increase in the price of goods and services in an economy, and a by-product of inflation is the devaluation of the currency used within that economy. For example, a clothing retailer that used to pay $8 for a t-shirt two years ago will now have to pay $10 for that exact product. The t-shirt hasn’t changed at all. However, it has become 25% more expensive. Inflation and the devaluation of currency are part of the reasons why they’d now pay $2 more for that same T-shirt.

    Also Read: Top 7 strategies to sell effectively on Amazon

    Impact of inflation on Retail

    FMCG

    The Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector will continue to grow because there is growth in household goods spending despite the Russia-Ukrainian crisis, global interest rate, and rising fuel prices. In fact, the demand for consumer packaged goods rose sharply in countries heavily affected by the pandemic. However, the FMCG sector will see a rise in prices of commodities because crucial resources such as cooking oil, tea, cocoa, etc., become scarce. The persistent shock to the supply chain has forced various FMCG companies to increase their prices. For instance, Mondelez, a Fortune 500–listed snack and beverage company, announced a 6-7% price increase. 

    Inflation for Fashion & Pharma Industry
    Inflation for Fashion & Pharma Industry

    Fashion

    The global fashion industry posted a 20% decline in revenues in 2019–20. Inflation in fashion is caused by transportation bottlenecks, material shortages, rising shipping costs, and straining supply and demand. The global fashion industry will see complete recovery in 2022. COVID-caused supply and demand constraints have eased, but shoppers will have to reconcile to price jumps in everything from bags to shoes.

    Pharma

    Pharmaceuticals are recognized as an essential commodity and therefore have a massive impact on the household budget. Vizient has projected a 3.09% increase in the inflation rate in drug prices from July 1, 2022 – June 30, 2023. It shows how inflation has a direct impact on prescription drug costs. Notably, retail prices for some of the most widely used prescription drugs are expected to increase 2x as much as inflation. The demand for pharmaceutical drugs has been higher post-pandemic, ensuring that consumers’ total demand and spending in this vertical will remain unchanged. 

    Comparison of New, Used & Electric cars
    Comparison of New, Used & Electric cars
    Highest & Lowest Inflation in Beauty category. Source: nielseniq.com

    Automotive

    The rise of both new and used cars has been steeply increasing partly because of the shortage of semiconductors and the backlog from the closure of factories during COVID-19. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there has been a 24.4% inflation in the used car purchase prices and an 8.8% increase in the new car purchase price. Rising oil prices across the globe and the historical oil crisis fuelled by the Ukraine-Russia war have strained many people’s budgets. However, the automobile market is seeing an uptake in demand for electrical vehicles (EVs). EVs represented 14% of car sales between January and June 2021. 

    Beauty

    COVID-19 brought new challenges to the cosmetics industry, chief among this being face-covering required by law. In light of social distancing and lockdowns across the globe, consumers were buying less makeup. The rising cost of labor, energy, and raw materials used in beauty products have resulted in a “once-in-two-decade” backdrop for price hikes. The cost of palm oil, a common material in beauty products, has soared 82% in two years due to Indonesian labor shortages. Nevertheless, consumers will spend more time outside the house. Beauty price per unit changes shot up 17% in-store and online in 2021.

    5 Things that will help retailers during inflationary times

    1. Observe Competition

    Retailers should follow their competitors closely—when they start to raise/lower prices, consider following suit. Using competitive data to gauge price changes will help in managing price parity. However, excessive discounts and lower prices to gain an advantage over your competitor could backfire in various ways. For example, low pricing may convey that your products aren’t as good as your competitors’, impacting your long-term brand image. Moreover, lowering prices to sell more doesn’t necessarily mean higher profits, especially during high inflation. To leverage this strategy effectively, retailers must first identify SKUs that have the highest impact on their pricing.

    2. Build a structured and targeted pricing strategy

    An effective pricing strategy that leverages differences in product, channels, and customers will help retailers to maintain long-term value for their business and customers. However, customers might react differently to a steep price increase. Broad price increases will demonstrate insensitivity and erode customer trust. Instead, retailers can thoughtfully tailor their inflationary price increases for each customer and product segment with a competitive pricing strategy. With a competitive and historical pricing strategy, brands can examine their customers’ end-to-end profitability and willingness to pay relative to a comparable peer set. 

    Price Competitiveness for the right items
    Price Competitiveness for the right items

    3. Rethink commercial positioning

    The pandemic and rise of inflation during 2020–2021 have profoundly impacted how consumers live and what they value. Understanding how your consumer’s needs have shifted and used a promotion strategy to manage today’s inflationary pressures is crucial. As new behaviors emerge post-pandemic, retailers must prepare for the potential top-line impact of demand shifts. Rethink commercial positioning and review marketing and packaging strategies, including the potential use of nonuniform and, in some cases, nonprice mechanisms.

    4. Ensure price competitiveness on the right items

    The Key-Value Item (KVIs) list should be reviewed again, considering changing shopper needs and habits during the pandemic, plus the supply and demand shock that the industry is currently experiencing. Price-sensitive and vulnerable shoppers are finding this inflationary period particularly tough, so brands might require an even deeper investment in KVI pricing. Reinvest base prices on essential products to drive volume for your best price-sensitive (PS) customers. Compete only where you need to be without overspending. Online channels should continue to reflect in-store prices and diverge during this time. Pricing Optimisation software enables best practices to simultaneously manage a high number of price increase requests.

    5. Revisit promotions to conserve costs and preserve stock availability

    Increasing the number of promoted products is a reflexive response to inflation, but it’s not the right response for building sustainable sales or longer-term loyalty. Inflationary times offer an excellent opportunity to reset promotional strategies to save money and margin. Retailers can increase sales and seize opportunities with a promotional pricing strategy. Increased promotional activity has a knock-on effect vs pricing position in high-low strategies and erodes overall value perception, creating a vicious circle of more promotions equals poorer value.

    Conclusion

    Today’s economic climate and associated pricing pressures are challenging for retailers and customers. Some companies have responded by announcing an increase in prices across product categories. Companies can manage pricing margins responsibly and profitably during inflation. Determining how and where new opportunities exist can help companies control inflation, drive growth, and remain profitable.

    Need help to arrive at the right pricing & discounting strategies to counter inflation? Sign up for a demo with our team to know how we can help!